Earth & Environmental Sciences

A model for gas migration through clay-based buffer material is developed for modeling gas generation and migration associated with deep geologic nuclear waste disposal. The model is based on a multiphase fluid flow and geomechanics simulator that is adapted to consider enhanced gas flow when gas pressure is high enough to approach the confining stress magnitude. A key feature in the model is a direct coupling between gas permeability and stress, through a non-linear stress-dependent permeability function. The model was first tested and calibrated by modelling two different laboratory gas migration tests on Wyoming (MX-80) bentonite samples. The calibrated model was then applied to model gas migration through a bentonite buffer of a large-scale gas injection test (Lasgit) conducted at the Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory in Sweden. Observed preferential gas migration along interfaces (between compacted blocks and along the canister surface) required explicit representation of such interfaces in the model. The model with the stress-dependent gas permeability accurately captured observed experimental responses in terms of gas breakthrough time, peak gas pressure, and cumulative gas flow rates. The calibrated model was finally applied to simulate migration of hydrogen gas generated within a breached nuclear waste canister over 10,000 years, involving migration of much larger gas volumes. For the considered gas generation rate and host rock properties, the generated gas could migrate through the bentonite buffer and released into the surrounding host rock at a maximum gas pressure somewhat higher than the initial total stress, though a significant amount of hydrogen remained within the buffer. This modelling sets the stage for further detailed analysis of the impact of hydrogen gas generation on the long-term performance of nuclear waste repositories.

It is challenging to quantitatively predict shearing of intersecting fractures/faults because of dynamic frictional contacts accompanied by possible nonlinear rock deformation. To address such challenges, a new conceptual model—the simplified DFN model—was proposed and validated by Hu et al.46 to use major paths (MPs) to represent complicated DFNs for calculation of shearing. In this work, we conducted a benchmark study for three examples that involve different levels of complexity of intersecting fractures, and correspondingly different numbers of MPs. The codes and software that were used in the benchmark cover a range of continuum, discontinuum and hybrid numerical methods: NMM (LBNL), FLAC3D (LBNL), GBDEM (KIGAM), FRACOD (DynaFrax), and CASRock (CAS). The general consistency between DFN and MP cases as predicted by all the codes/software demonstrates that major paths can be used to simplify the geometry of DFNs in a wide range of software. Disagreement in results made by some software and potential future improvements are discussed. We show that (1) shearing of one or multiple major fractures can be reduced if there are multiple smaller intersecting fractures in that area, which is a useful basis for understanding and controlling induced seismicity and merits further analysis, and (2) the agreement achieved in the benchmark examples provide confidence that the simplified DFN model is a promising conceptual model that can be used for different types of numerical approaches and software for simplifying the analysis of the shearing of intersecting fractures and faults.

With the goal of better understanding stimulation in crystalline rock for improving enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), the EGS Collab Project performed a series of stimulations and flow tests at 1.25 and 1.5 km depths. The tests were performed in two well-instrumented testbeds in the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota, United States. The testbed for Experiment 1 at 1.5 km depth contained two open wells for injection and production and six instrumented monitoring wells surrounding the targeted stimulation zone. Four multi-step stimulation tests targeting hydraulic fracturing and nearly year-long ambient temperature and chilled water flow tests were performed in Experiment 1. The testbed for Experiments 2 and 3 was at 1.25 km depth and contained five open wells in an outwardly fanning five-spot pattern and two fans of well-instrumented monitoring wells surrounding the targeted stimulation zone. Experiment 2 targeted shear stimulation, and Experiment 3 targeted low-flow, high-flow, and oscillating pressure stimulation strategies. Hydraulic fracturing was successful in Experiments 1 and 3 in generating a connected system wherein injected water could be collected. However, the resulting flow was distributed dynamically, and not entirely collected at the anticipated production well. Thermal breakthrough was not observed in the production well, but that could have been masked by the Joule-Thomson effect. Shear stimulation in Experiment 2 did not occur – despite attempting to pressurize the fractures most likely to shear – because of the inability to inject water into a mostly-healed fracture, and the low shear-to-normal stress ratio. The EGS Collab experiments are described to provide a background for lessons learned on topics including induced seismicity, the correlation between seismicity and permeability, distributed and dynamic flow systems, thermoelastic and pressure effects, shear stimulation, local geology, thermal breakthrough, monitoring stimulation, grouting boreholes, modeling, and system management.

In this study, we evaluated the performance of the United States Geological Survey velocity model developed for the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), version 21.1. The evaluation was performed through high-resolution three-dimensional physics-based ground motion simulations of seven small-magnitude earthquakes (ranging from magnitude 3.8 to 4.4) that occurred on the eastern side of the San Francisco Bay. The simulations were performed in the frequency range from 0 to 5 Hz with a minimum shear-wave velocity of 250 m/s, which allowed the capture of wave propagation effects of the near-surface soft materials that characterize local basins. Based on the direct comparison of Fourier amplitude spectra between recorded and simulated ground motions for more than 250 stations, we found that the velocity model generally performs well in the frequency range of 0.2–5 Hz. The median value of the Fourier amplitude residuals was found to be near zero for all seven earthquakes. The slight over-prediction of 0.2 log-natural units at frequencies above 3 Hz in our simulations was attributed to the potentially inaccurate representation of the source radiation pattern by a double-couple point source model, and simple representation of shallow small-scale underground structural complexity in the velocity model. Maps of spectral amplitude differences between the simulated and recorded data were used to identify areas responsible for systematic ground motion over-predictions or under-predictions. For example, while some sub-domains over soft sediments show over-prediction patterns, the block east of the Hayward fault is prone to exhibit patterns of under-prediction. These maps can be used to guide future refinements of the SFBA velocity model. Since our simulation methodology allows for the decoupling of the source and wave propagation effects, the ground motion data generated by our simulations can also be used to quantify the epistemic uncertainty due to the velocity model, in empirically based ground motion estimates for the SFBA.

Simulating realistic seismic wavefields is crucial for a range of seismic tasks, including acquisition designing, imaging, and inversion. Conventional numerical seismic wave simulators are computationally expensive for large 3D models, and discrepancies between simulated and observed waveforms arise from wave equation selection and input physical parameters such as the subsurface elastic models and the source parameters. To address these challenges, we adopt a data-driven artificial intelligence approach and propose a conditional generative modeling (CGM) framework for seismic wave simulation. The novel CGM framework learns complex 3D wave physics and subsurface heterogeneities from the observed data without relying on explicit physics constraints. As a result, trained CGM-based models act as stochastic wave-propagation operators encoded with a local subsurface model and a local moment tensor solution defined by training data sets. Given these models, we can simulate multicomponent seismic data for arbitrary acquisition settings within the area of the observation, using source and receiver geometries and source parameters as input conditional variables. In this study, we develop four models within the CGM framework-CGM-GM-1D/3D, CGM-Wave, and CGM-FAS-and demonstrate their performance using two seismic data sets: a small low-density data set of natural earthquake waveforms from the San Francisco Bay Area, a region with high seismic risks, and a large high-density data set from induced seismicity records of the Geysers geothermal field. The CGM framework reproduces the waveforms, the spectra, and the kinematic features of the real observations, demonstrating the ability to generate waveforms for arbitrary source locations, receiver locations, and source parameters. We address key challenges, including data density, acquisition geometry, scaling, and generation variability, and we outline future directions for advancing the CGM framework in seismic applications and beyond.

Russias invasion of Ukraine continues to have a devastating effect on the well-being of Ukrainians and their environment. We evaluated a major environmental hazard caused by the war: the potential for groundwater contamination in proximity to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). We quantified groundwater vulnerability with the DRASTIC index, which was originally developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency and has been used at various locations worldwide to assess relative pollution potential. We found that there are two major gradients of groundwater vulnerability in the region: (1) broadly higher risk to the northeast of the NPP and lower risk to the southeast driven by a regional gradient in water availability and water table depth; and (2) higher risk in proximity to the channels and floodplains of the Dnipro River and tributaries, which host coarser-textured soils and sedimentary deposits. We also found that the DRASTIC vulnerability index can be used to identify and prioritize groundwater well-network monitoring. These and more detailed assessments will be necessary to prioritize monitoring and remediation strategies across Ukraine in the event of a nuclear accident, and more broadly demonstrate the utility of the DRASTIC approach for prognostic contamination risk assessment.

Seabed unexploded ordnance that resulted partly from the high failure rate among munitions from more than 80 years ago and from decades of military training and testing of weapons systems poses an increasing concern all around the world. Although existing magnetic systems can detect clusters of debris, they are not able to tell whether a munition is still intact requiring special removal (e.g. in situ detonation) or is harmless scrap metal. The marine environment poses unique challenges, and transferring knowledge and approaches from land to a marine environment has not been easy and straightforward. On land, the background soil conductivity is much lower than the conductivity of the unexploded ordnance and the electromagnetic response of a target is essentially the same as that in free space. For those frequencies required for target characterization in the marine environment, the seawater response must be accounted for and removed from the measurements. The system developed for this study uses fields from three orthogonal transmitters to illuminate the target and four three-component receivers to measure the signal arranged in a configuration that inherently cancels the system's response due to the enclosing seawater, the sea–bottom interface and the air–sea interface for shallow deployments. The system was tested as a cued system on land and underwater in San Francisco Bay – it was mounted on a simple platform on top of a support structure that extended 1 m below and allowed the diver to place metal objects to a specific location even in low-visibility conditions. The measurements were stable and repeatable. Furthermore, target responses estimated from marine measurements matched those from land acquisition, confirming that the seawater and air–sea interface responses were removed successfully. Thirty-six channels of normalized induction responses were used for the classification, which was done by estimating the target principal dipole polarizabilities. Our results demonstrated that the system can resolve the intrinsic polarizabilities of the target, with clear distinctions between those of symmetric intact unexploded ordnance and irregular scrap metal. The prototype system was able to classify an object based on its size, shape and metal content and correctly estimate its location and orientation.

We analyze the relationship between geothermal energy production and seismic hazards in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF) between 1972 and 2022. A clear increase in seismic activity accompanies geothermal energy production and is greatest to the east of the Brawley fault, where the amount of injection exceeds the amount of production. We estimate that, whereas there was a 2% chance of a M6.07 earthquake nucleating inside the SSGF within a fifty-year period prior to energy production (pre-production), there is an equal probability that a M6.70 earthquake nucleates there in a fifty-year period during which historically average energy production conditions persist (syn-production). Similarly, we estimate a 2% chance of a M7.15 and M6.92 occurring in the broader Brawley Seismic Zone (excluding the SSGF) within a fifty-year period during the pre- and syn-production eras, respectively. We find that linear regression models fail to reliably forecast the background seismicity rate as a function of fluid production and injection.