Earth & Environmental Sciences

Despite its importance for determining global carbon fluxes, leaf respiration remains poorly constrained in land surface models (LSMs). We tested the sensitivity of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model - Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (ELM-FATES) to variation in the canopy gradients of leaf maintenance respiration (R_dark). We ran global and point simulations varying the canopy gradient of R_dark to explore the impacts on forest structure, composition, and carbon cycling. In global simulations, steeper canopy gradients of R_dark lead to increased understory survival and leaf biomass. Leaf area index (LAI) increased up to 77% in tropical regions compared with the default parameterization, improving alignment with remotely sensed benchmarks. Global vegetation carbon varied from 308 Pg C to 449 Pg C across the ensemble. In tropical forest simulations, steeper gradients of R_dark had a large impact on successional dynamics. Results show the importance of canopy gradients in leaf traits and fluxes for determining plant carbon budgets and emergent ecosystem properties such as competitive dynamics, LAI, and vegetation carbon. The high-model sensitivity to canopy gradients in R_dark highlights the need for more observations of how leaf traits and fluxes vary along light micro-environments to inform critical dynamics in LSMs.

It is challenging to quantitatively predict shearing of intersecting fractures/faults because of dynamic frictional contacts accompanied by possible nonlinear rock deformation. To address such challenges, a new conceptual model—the simplified DFN model—was proposed and validated by Hu et al.46 to use major paths (MPs) to represent complicated DFNs for calculation of shearing. In this work, we conducted a benchmark study for three examples that involve different levels of complexity of intersecting fractures, and correspondingly different numbers of MPs. The codes and software that were used in the benchmark cover a range of continuum, discontinuum and hybrid numerical methods: NMM (LBNL), FLAC3D (LBNL), GBDEM (KIGAM), FRACOD (DynaFrax), and CASRock (CAS). The general consistency between DFN and MP cases as predicted by all the codes/software demonstrates that major paths can be used to simplify the geometry of DFNs in a wide range of software. Disagreement in results made by some software and potential future improvements are discussed. We show that (1) shearing of one or multiple major fractures can be reduced if there are multiple smaller intersecting fractures in that area, which is a useful basis for understanding and controlling induced seismicity and merits further analysis, and (2) the agreement achieved in the benchmark examples provide confidence that the simplified DFN model is a promising conceptual model that can be used for different types of numerical approaches and software for simplifying the analysis of the shearing of intersecting fractures and faults.

In this study, we analyzed the effects of snow cover changes caused by snow fences (SFs) installed in 2017 in the Alaskan tundra to examine ground subsidence. Digital surface model data obtained through LiDAR-based remote sensing in 2019 and 2022, combined with a field survey in 2021, revealed approximately 0.2 m of ground subsidence around the SF. To investigate the relationship between SF-induced snow cover changes and ground subsidence, geophysical methods, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and ground-penetrating radar (GPR), were applied in 2023 to analyze subsurface characteristics. The increased snow cover due to the SF-enhanced insulation, delaying the penetration of winter cold into the subsurface. This delay caused subsurface temperatures to decrease more slowly, melting the upper permafrost and increasing the thickness of the active layer. ERT and GPR surveys well delineated the boundary between the active layer and permafrost, confirming that the increased snow cover thickened the active layer. This thickening led to the melting of pore ice, causing water runoff and ground compaction, which resulted in subsidence. The runoff also formed channels flowing eastward over the SF. This study highlights how changes in snow cover can influence active layer properties, leading to localized environmental changes and ground subsidence.

Russias invasion of Ukraine continues to have a devastating effect on the well-being of Ukrainians and their environment. We evaluated a major environmental hazard caused by the war: the potential for groundwater contamination in proximity to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). We quantified groundwater vulnerability with the DRASTIC index, which was originally developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency and has been used at various locations worldwide to assess relative pollution potential. We found that there are two major gradients of groundwater vulnerability in the region: (1) broadly higher risk to the northeast of the NPP and lower risk to the southeast driven by a regional gradient in water availability and water table depth; and (2) higher risk in proximity to the channels and floodplains of the Dnipro River and tributaries, which host coarser-textured soils and sedimentary deposits. We also found that the DRASTIC vulnerability index can be used to identify and prioritize groundwater well-network monitoring. These and more detailed assessments will be necessary to prioritize monitoring and remediation strategies across Ukraine in the event of a nuclear accident, and more broadly demonstrate the utility of the DRASTIC approach for prognostic contamination risk assessment.

Undocumented Orphaned Wells (UOWs) are wells without an operator that have limited or no documentation with regulatory authorities. An estimated 310,000 to 800,000 UOWs exist in the United States (US), whose locations are largely unknown. These wells can potentially leak methane and other volatile organic compounds to the atmosphere, and contaminate groundwater. In this study, we developed a novel framework utilizing a state-of-the-art computer vision neural network model to identify the precise locations of potential UOWs. The U-Net model is trained to detect oil and gas well symbols in georeferenced historical topographic maps, and potential UOWs are identified as symbols that are further than 100 m from any documented well. A custom tool was developed to rapidly validate the potential UOW locations. We applied this framework to four counties in California and Oklahoma, leading to the discovery of 1301 potential UOWs across >40,000 km². We confirmed the presence of 29 UOWs from satellite images and 15 UOWs from magnetic surveys in the field with a spatial accuracy on the order of 10 m. This framework can be scaled to identify potential UOWs across the US since the historical maps are available for the entire nation.

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Leaf dark respiration (R_dark), an important yet rarely quantified component of carbon cycling in forest ecosystems, is often simulated from leaf traits such as the maximum carboxylation capacity (V_cmax), leaf mass per area (LMA), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations, in terrestrial biosphere models. However, the validity of these relationships across forest types remains to be thoroughly assessed. Here, we analyzed R_dark variability and its associations with V_cmax and other leaf traits across three temperate, subtropical and tropical forests in China, evaluating the effectiveness of leaf spectroscopy as a superior monitoring alternative. We found that leaf magnesium and calcium concentrations were more significant in explaining cross-site R_dark than commonly used traits like LMA, N and P concentrations, but univariate trait-R_dark relationships were always weak (r² ≤ 0.15) and forest-specific. Although multivariate relationships of leaf traits improved the model performance, leaf spectroscopy outperformed trait-R_dark relationships, accurately predicted cross-site R_dark (r² = 0.65) and pinpointed the factors contributing to R_dark variability. Our findings reveal a few novel traits with greater cross-site scalability regarding R_dark, challenging the use of empirical trait-R_dark relationships in process models and emphasize the potential of leaf spectroscopy as a promising alternative for estimating R_dark, which could ultimately improve process modeling of terrestrial plant respiration.

In the United States, hundreds of thousands of undocumented orphan wells have been abandoned, leaving the burden of managing environmental hazards to governmental agencies or the public. These wells, a result of over a century of fossil fuel extraction without adequate regulation, lack basic information like location and depth, emit greenhouse gases, and leak toxic substances into groundwater. For most of these wells, basic information such as well location and depth is unknown or unverified. Addressing this issue necessitates innovative and interdisciplinary approaches for locating, characterizing, and mitigating their environmental impacts. Our survey of the United States revealed the need for tools to identify well locations and assess conditions, prompting the development of technologies including machine learning to automatically extract information from old records (95%+ accuracy), remote sensing technologies like aero-magnetometers to find buried wells, and cost-effective methods for estimating methane emissions. Notably, fixed-wing drones equipped with magnetometers have emerged as cost-effective and efficient for discovering unknown wells, offering advantages over helicopters and quadcopters. Efforts also involved leveraging local knowledge through outreach to state and tribal governments as well as citizen science initiatives. These initiatives aim to significantly contribute to environmental sustainability by reducing greenhouse gases and improving air and water quality.

Stress changes due to changes in fluid pressure and temperature in a faulted formation may lead to the opening/shearing of the fault. This can be due to subsurface (geo)engineering activities such as fluid injections and geologic disposal of nuclear waste. Such activities are expected to rise in the future making it necessary to assess their short- and long-term safety. Here, a new machine learning (ML) approach to model pore pressure and fault displacements in response to high-pressure fluid injection cycles is developed. The focus is on fault behavior near the injection borehole. To capture the temporal dependencies in the data, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks are utilized. To prevent error accumulation within the forecast window, four critical measures to train a robust LSTM model for predicting fault response are highlighted: (i) setting an appropriate value of LSTM lag, (ii) calibrating the LSTM cell dimension, (iii) learning rate reduction during weight optimization, and (iv) not adopting an independent injection cycle as a validation set. Several numerical experiments were conducted, which demonstrated that the ML model can capture peaks in pressure and associated fault displacement that accompany an increase in fluid injection. The model also captured the decay in pressure and displacement during the injection shut-in period. Further, the ability of an ML model to highlight key changes in fault hydromechanical activation processes was investigated, which shows that ML can be used to monitor risk of fault activation and leakage during high pressure fluid injections.