Earth & Environmental Sciences

Russias invasion of Ukraine continues to have a devastating effect on the well-being of Ukrainians and their environment. We evaluated a major environmental hazard caused by the war: the potential for groundwater contamination in proximity to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). We quantified groundwater vulnerability with the DRASTIC index, which was originally developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency and has been used at various locations worldwide to assess relative pollution potential. We found that there are two major gradients of groundwater vulnerability in the region: (1) broadly higher risk to the northeast of the NPP and lower risk to the southeast driven by a regional gradient in water availability and water table depth; and (2) higher risk in proximity to the channels and floodplains of the Dnipro River and tributaries, which host coarser-textured soils and sedimentary deposits. We also found that the DRASTIC vulnerability index can be used to identify and prioritize groundwater well-network monitoring. These and more detailed assessments will be necessary to prioritize monitoring and remediation strategies across Ukraine in the event of a nuclear accident, and more broadly demonstrate the utility of the DRASTIC approach for prognostic contamination risk assessment.

Undocumented Orphaned Wells (UOWs) are wells without an operator that have limited or no documentation with regulatory authorities. An estimated 310,000 to 800,000 UOWs exist in the United States (US), whose locations are largely unknown. These wells can potentially leak methane and other volatile organic compounds to the atmosphere, and contaminate groundwater. In this study, we developed a novel framework utilizing a state-of-the-art computer vision neural network model to identify the precise locations of potential UOWs. The U-Net model is trained to detect oil and gas well symbols in georeferenced historical topographic maps, and potential UOWs are identified as symbols that are further than 100 m from any documented well. A custom tool was developed to rapidly validate the potential UOW locations. We applied this framework to four counties in California and Oklahoma, leading to the discovery of 1301 potential UOWs across >40,000 km². We confirmed the presence of 29 UOWs from satellite images and 15 UOWs from magnetic surveys in the field with a spatial accuracy on the order of 10 m. This framework can be scaled to identify potential UOWs across the US since the historical maps are available for the entire nation.

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Leaf dark respiration (R_dark), an important yet rarely quantified component of carbon cycling in forest ecosystems, is often simulated from leaf traits such as the maximum carboxylation capacity (V_cmax), leaf mass per area (LMA), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations, in terrestrial biosphere models. However, the validity of these relationships across forest types remains to be thoroughly assessed. Here, we analyzed R_dark variability and its associations with V_cmax and other leaf traits across three temperate, subtropical and tropical forests in China, evaluating the effectiveness of leaf spectroscopy as a superior monitoring alternative. We found that leaf magnesium and calcium concentrations were more significant in explaining cross-site R_dark than commonly used traits like LMA, N and P concentrations, but univariate trait-R_dark relationships were always weak (r² ≤ 0.15) and forest-specific. Although multivariate relationships of leaf traits improved the model performance, leaf spectroscopy outperformed trait-R_dark relationships, accurately predicted cross-site R_dark (r² = 0.65) and pinpointed the factors contributing to R_dark variability. Our findings reveal a few novel traits with greater cross-site scalability regarding R_dark, challenging the use of empirical trait-R_dark relationships in process models and emphasize the potential of leaf spectroscopy as a promising alternative for estimating R_dark, which could ultimately improve process modeling of terrestrial plant respiration.

In the United States, hundreds of thousands of undocumented orphan wells have been abandoned, leaving the burden of managing environmental hazards to governmental agencies or the public. These wells, a result of over a century of fossil fuel extraction without adequate regulation, lack basic information like location and depth, emit greenhouse gases, and leak toxic substances into groundwater. For most of these wells, basic information such as well location and depth is unknown or unverified. Addressing this issue necessitates innovative and interdisciplinary approaches for locating, characterizing, and mitigating their environmental impacts. Our survey of the United States revealed the need for tools to identify well locations and assess conditions, prompting the development of technologies including machine learning to automatically extract information from old records (95%+ accuracy), remote sensing technologies like aero-magnetometers to find buried wells, and cost-effective methods for estimating methane emissions. Notably, fixed-wing drones equipped with magnetometers have emerged as cost-effective and efficient for discovering unknown wells, offering advantages over helicopters and quadcopters. Efforts also involved leveraging local knowledge through outreach to state and tribal governments as well as citizen science initiatives. These initiatives aim to significantly contribute to environmental sustainability by reducing greenhouse gases and improving air and water quality.

This study investigates the enhancement of disposal efficiency for deep geological repositories (DGRs) based on three design factors: decay heat optimization, increased thermal limit of the buffer, and double-layer concept using coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) numerical simulations. Decay heat optimization is achieved by iteratively emplacing spent nuclear fuels having the maximum and minimum decay heat in a canister. Disposal areas can be reduced by 20 % to 40 % compared to the current reference disposal system in Korea (KRS+) in accordance with the combinations of the three design factors, alleviating challenges in site selection for the DGR. This study additionally identifies an optimal layer spacing of 500 m for the double-layer concept in the viewpoint of the buffer temperature, where thermal interaction between the upper and lower layers nearly disappears. However, determining the ultimate disposal and layer spacing requires engineering judgement, considering not only the thermal performance of the DGR but also various factors such as cost and difficulties of the construction and rock mass stability. DGRs designed with an increased thermal limit of the buffer poses a greater probability of rock mass failure around disposal tunnels and deposition holes due to elevated thermal stresses. Densely arranged heat sources for the DGRs with enhanced disposal efficiency lead to larger temperature increase even at the far-field scale, raising a possibility of thermally driven fracture shear activation with associated hydraulic, mechanical, and seismic changes.

Stress changes due to changes in fluid pressure and temperature in a faulted formation may lead to the opening/shearing of the fault. This can be due to subsurface (geo)engineering activities such as fluid injections and geologic disposal of nuclear waste. Such activities are expected to rise in the future making it necessary to assess their short- and long-term safety. Here, a new machine learning (ML) approach to model pore pressure and fault displacements in response to high-pressure fluid injection cycles is developed. The focus is on fault behavior near the injection borehole. To capture the temporal dependencies in the data, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks are utilized. To prevent error accumulation within the forecast window, four critical measures to train a robust LSTM model for predicting fault response are highlighted: (i) setting an appropriate value of LSTM lag, (ii) calibrating the LSTM cell dimension, (iii) learning rate reduction during weight optimization, and (iv) not adopting an independent injection cycle as a validation set. Several numerical experiments were conducted, which demonstrated that the ML model can capture peaks in pressure and associated fault displacement that accompany an increase in fluid injection. The model also captured the decay in pressure and displacement during the injection shut-in period. Further, the ability of an ML model to highlight key changes in fault hydromechanical activation processes was investigated, which shows that ML can be used to monitor risk of fault activation and leakage during high pressure fluid injections.

We conduct coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling of a KBS-3V repository design in crystalline rocks, using data and conditions from the Forsmark in Olkiluoto repository sites in Sweden and Finland. The study focuses on repository performance related to the impact of thermal and hydraulic evolution on the potential for thermal–mechanical damage to underground repository excavations. For the designs and conditions considered at the Forsmark and Olkiluoto repository sites, the simulations show a peak temperature well under the adopted performance target of a 100°C maximum temperature, whereas there is still a high potential for thermal–mechanical damage to the KBS-3V waste deposition holes. The thermal–mechanical damage is much more likely if rock permeability is so low that it delays saturation and swelling of bentonite-clay-based backfill beyond the time for the thermal–mechanical peak, which occurs 50 to 100 years after nuclear waste deposition. We also found that sidewalls of the KBS-3V emplacement tunnels are vulnerable to tensile fracturing due to the combined effect of thermal stressing and backfill swelling. The study highlights a strong interaction between bentonite-based backfill and host rock through capillary suction along with induced rock desaturation. A careful design and selection of the bentonite-clay-based backfill materials for KBS-3V tunnels and deposition holes can facilitate a timely saturation and backfill swelling that in turn can minimize thermal–mechanical damage.

Model representation of carbon uptake and storage is essential for accurate projection of the response of the arctic-boreal zone to a rapidly changing climate. Land model estimates of LAI and aboveground biomass that can have a marked influence on model projections of carbon uptake and storage vary substantially in the arctic and boreal zone, making it challenging to correctly evaluate model estimates of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). To understand and correct bias of LAI and aboveground biomass in the Community Land Model (CLM), we assimilated the 8-day Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI observation and a machine learning product of annual aboveground biomass into CLM using an Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF) in an experimental region including Alaska and Western Canada. Assimilating LAI and aboveground biomass reduced these model estimates by 58% and 72%, respectively. The change of aboveground biomass was consistent with independent estimates of canopy top height at both regional and site levels. The International Land Model Benchmarking system assessment showed that data assimilation significantly improved CLM's performance in simulating the carbon and hydrological cycles, as well as in representing the functional relationships between LAI and other variables. To further reduce the remaining bias in GPP after LAI bias correction, we re-parameterized CLM to account for low temperature suppression of photosynthesis. The LAI bias corrected model that included the new parameterization showed the best agreement with model benchmarks. Combining data assimilation with model parameterization provides a useful framework to assess photosynthetic processes in LSMs.