California Institute for Energy and Environment (CIEE)

This study simulates the impacts of higher temperatures resulting from anthropogenic climate change on residential electricity consumption for the nine San Francisco Bay Area counties (Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma). Flexible temperature response functions are estimated by climate zone, which allows for differential effects of days with different meant temperatures on households’ electricity consumption. The estimation uses a comprehensive household-level data set of billing data for Pacific Gas and Electric Company). The results suggest that the temperature response varies greatly across climate zones. Simulation results using three downscaled climate models suggest that for constant population the total demand for the households that were considered may increase by between 1 to 4 percent by the end of the century. The study further simulates the impacts of higher electricity prices and different scenarios of population growth.