California Institute for Energy and Environment (CIEE)

Indonesia, renowned as the most mangrove-rich nation, has committed to extensive mangrove restoration policies, but the effects of these policies have yet to be systematically evaluated. Our study conducts a comprehensive network analysis to investigate the synergies between mangrove restoration policy and global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) achievements by exploring their interactions. This investigation follows the ‘product space’ method in economics and creates the ‘Mangrove-SDG space’ to assess each metric pair's co-occurrence and comparative advantages with validated stability. Our analysis unveils a tripartite structure, encompassing socio-economic and environmental clusters, each significantly contributing to global sustainability and a distinctive mangrove cluster tied to land attributes. At the Goal level, mangrove loss showcases robust synergies with SDGs 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production) and 13 (Climate Change), and mangrove metrics such as tropical storm frequency and mangrove change, indicating strong interdependences between mangrove forests and SDGs. The result indicates that improved performance of climate change and responsible consumption can greatly enhance mangrove forests' performance in alleviating mangrove loss and reducing tropical storms. Moreover, our analysis underscores the central roles played by ‘bridge’ Goals. Indicator-level space details how they warrant prioritization because of their cascade synergistic enhancements across widely interconnected indicators, triggering systematic positive improvements. Turning to Indonesia, we advocate a strategic shift from solely expanding mangrove extent to focusing on four critical policy priorities: effective nitrogen management, enhancing Ramsar site efficiency, optimizing logistic performance, and addressing urban population conditions. These priorities are pivotal to seeking complementarities between Indonesia's international sustainability commitment and fostering mangrove restoration success.

In What If We Get It Right?, marine biologist Ayana Elizabeth Johnson outlines an optimistic, actionable approach to addressing climate change, highlighting the importance of community, cultural shifts, and systemic change. The book integrates interviews and essays from a diverse group of experts, reinforcing the idea that meaningful change is possible if we harness our individual strengths and collaborate across disciplines.

Currently, less than 1% of Earth is too hot to support human life, but researchers estimate that by 2070 nearly 20% of the planet’s surface will be outside humanity’s comfort zone. The “bubble of unlivability” could include up to a third of the people on Earth, and existing inequalities will likely increase conflict. In the United States, vulnerable populations will be prone to disproportionate risk. On the Move, by journalist Abrahm Lustgarten, is a poignant and meticulously researched exploration of climate change and both its imminent and long-term effects on human migration in the US. Through analysis, personal narratives, and projected future scenarios, Lustgarten unveils the stark reality of a world on the brink of massive demographic shifts driven by an increasingly inhospitable climate. Lustgarten begins with a personal account of the moment he recognized the climate crisis as a reality that no region will escape. His usual view of the San Francisco skyline was replaced by “a sepia-toned, smoke-filled universe,” he writes. “Just twelve miles away as the crow flies, behind the ridge of parched and brittle redwoods I could see from my window, the Point Reyes National Seashore was burning. Tall gray towers of smoke billowed upward, raining down soot.” He then details how climate-driven migrations are not a future possibility but rather a current event, with historical precedents and emerging patterns that signal a profound shift in how and where people can live.

This commentary suggests that undertaking citizen science research with young people has the potential to play a significant role in contributing to the IPPC and related UN research and policy processes around climate change. Further, citizen science engagement can educate and empower children and young people in and through research by involving wider communities and groups in data collection, communication, and engagement. A persuasive body of literature suggests that children and youth can be and ought to be included in citizen science projects and that young people ought to and can have a greater say in their environmental and climate lives and futures. There is acknowledgment that certain populations, including young people, have been excluded from participation in citizen science, and strategies need to be developed to be more inclusive. Moreover, through inclusion of youth, there are opportunities for intergeneration collaboration leading to potential solutions. Our commentary is a call for the IPCC to be much more open and creative in its knowledge production work and to engage young people in climate-related citizen science.

How can cities efficiently and affordably undergo effective and dramatic decarbonization of buildings and vehicles? Can these strategies promote equity and scale across the urban environment worldwide? The EcoBlock in Oakland, California seeks to answer this urgent environmental, social, and technical question by designing, testing, and deploying community-scale energy and water systems. These innovative systems combine energy and water efficiency and electrification at the building scale with an electrical system that integrates rooftop solar, block-scale storage, electric vehicle (EV) charging, and a smart microgrid that optimizes supply and demand at the block-scale.

This paper presents the approach and strategies when moving from design to implementation deploying this novel prototype toward industrializing city-wide, residential microgrids that generate their own clean, renewable power for homes and EVs. Scaling retrofits requires coordination from evaluation, product selection, permitting and installation involving contractors, utilities, consultants and various Authorit(ies) Having Jurisdiction (AHJ). Improvements at homes interconnect with block scale microgrid and EV charging in an existing block and social dynamic. This paper will discuss opportunities and pitfalls to implementing block scale electrification and microgrid to achieve environmental benefits of emission savings and resiliency, utility cost benefits, social benefits of neighborhood network, and comfort and health benefits in each home.

Dominant plant species mediate many ecosystem services, including carbon storage, soil retention, and water cycling. One of the uncertainties with climate change effects on terrestrial ecosystems is understanding where transitions in dominant vegetation, often termed state change, will occur. The complex nature of state change requires multiple lines of evidence. Here, we present four lines of inquiry into climate change effects on dominant vegetation, focusing on the likelihood and nature of climate change–driven state change. This study combined physiological measurements, geographic models, historical documented cases of state change, and statewide plot sampling networks together with interpolated climate grids. Together these approaches suggest that the vulnerability to state change will be driven by the proximity of climatic conditions to biological thresholds for dominant species. The sensitivity of the dominant species is a much greater driver of climate vulnerability compared to the degree of climate change seen by a particular place (Section 1). Furthermore, in some cases, physiological measurements on those species can inform the nature of these thresholds (Section 3). The study team’s review of past state change events suggests connections between particular state changes (e.g., forest to shrubland) and particular triggers (e.g., fire; Section 2). The effect of fire is particularly important, as it will likely interact with climatic change with implications for the success of different life history strategies among woody plants (Section 4). Our work suggests that the biological thresholds of dominant species will play a crucial role in the vulnerability of California terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding where climate change will push dominant species past these thresholds should be a major focus of future research.

Climate warming is expected to affect the beneficial uses of water in the Sierra Nevada, impacting nearly every resident of California. This paper describes the development and results from an integrated water resource management model encompassing water operations and hydropower generation for the west slope Sierra Nevada spanning the Feather River basin in the north to the Kern River basin in the south at the weekly time step. This model application includes management of reservoirs, run-of-river hydropower plants, water supply demand locations, conveyances, and instream flow requirement. Model validation indicates that most major hydropower turbine flows were simulated well, with wetter years modeled more effectively than drier years. The results of this work indicated that hydropower generation will be reduced by approximately 8 percent with 6°C (10.8°F) warming, consistent with other studies, with a conservative parameterization of no change in precipitation. Reservoir operations adapt to capture earlier and greater runoff volumes that result from earlier and greater runoff due to climate warming. Seasonal compensation in operations is insufficient to overcome warming mediated losses.