Different theoretical methodologies lead to order-of-magnitude variations in predicted galaxy-galaxy merger rates. We examine how this arises and quantify the dominant uncertainties. Modeling of dark matter and galaxy inspiral/merger times contribute factor of ∼2 uncertainties. Different estimates of the halo-halo merger rate, the subhalo "destruction" rate, and the halo merger rate with some dynamical friction time delay for galaxy-galaxy mergers, agree to within this factor of ∼2, provided proper care is taken to define mergers consistently. There are some caveats: if halo/subhalo masses are not appropriately defined the major-merger rate can be dramatically suppressed, and in models with "orphan" galaxies and under-resolved subhalos the merger timescale can be severely overestimated. The dominant differences in galaxy-galaxy merger rates between models owe to the treatment of the baryonic physics. Cosmological hydrodynamic simulations without strong feedback and some older semianalytic models (SAMs), with known discrepancies in mass functions, can be biased by large factors (∼5) in predicted merger rates. However, provided that models yield a reasonable match to the total galaxy mass function, the differences in properties of central galaxies are sufficiently small to alone contribute small (factor of ∼1.5) additional systematics to merger rate predictions. But variations in the baryonic physics of satellite galaxies in models can also have a dramatic effect on merger rates. The well-known problem of satellite "over-quenching" in most current SAMs-whereby SAM satellite populations are too efficiently stripped of their gas-could lead to order-of-magnitude under-estimates of merger rates for low-mass, gas-rich galaxies. Models in which the masses of satellites are fixed by observations (or SAMs adjusted to resolve this "over-quenching") tend to predict higher merger rates, but with factor of ∼2 uncertainties stemming from the uncertainty in those observations. The choice of mass used to define "major" and "minor" mergers also matters: stellar-stellar major mergers can be more or less abundant than halo-halo major mergers by an order of magnitude. At low masses, most true major mergers (mass ratio defined in terms of their baryonic or dynamical mass) will appear to be minor mergers in their stellar mass ratio-observations and models using just stellar criteria could underestimate major-merger rates by factors of ∼3-5. We discuss the uncertainties in relating any merger rate to spheroid formation (in observations or theory): in order to achieve better than factor of ∼3 accuracy, it is necessary to account for the distribution of merger orbital parameters, gas fractions, and the full efficiency of merger-induced effects as a function of mass ratio. © 2010. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. Printed in the U.S.A.

Achieving a precise understanding of galaxy formation in a cosmological context is one of the great challenges in theoretical astrophysics, due to the vast range of spatial scales involved in the relevant physical processes. Observations in the millimeter bands, particularly those using the cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation as a "backlight", provide a unique probe of the thermodynamics of these processes, with the capability to directly measure the density, pressure, and temperature of ionized gas. Moreover, these observations have uniquely high sensitivity into the outskirts of the halos of galaxies and clusters, including systems at high redshift. In the next decade, the combination of large spectroscopic and photometric optical galaxy surveys and wide-field, low-noise CMB surveys will transform our understanding of galaxy formation via these probes.

We characterize mass, momentum, energy, and metal outflow rates of multiphase galactic winds in a suite of FIRE-2 cosmological 'zoom-in' simulations from the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. We analyse simulations of low-mass dwarfs, intermediate-mass dwarfs, Milky Way-mass haloes, and high-redshift massive haloes. Consistent with previous work, we find that dwarfs eject about 100 times more gas from their interstellar medium (ISM) than they form in stars, while this mass 'loading factor' drops below one in massive galaxies. Most of the mass is carried by the hot phase (>105 K) in massive haloes and the warm phase (103-105 K) in dwarfs; cold outflows (<103 K) are negligible except in high-redshift dwarfs. Energy, momentum, and metal loading factors from the ISM are of order unity in dwarfs and significantly lower in more massive haloes. Hot outflows have 2-5 × higher specific energy than needed to escape from the gravitational potential of dwarf haloes; indeed, in dwarfs, the mass, momentum, and metal outflow rates increase with radius whereas energy is roughly conserved, indicating swept up halo gas. Burst-averaged mass loading factors tend to be larger during more powerful star formation episodes and when the inner halo is not virialized, but we see effectively no trend with the dense ISM gas fraction. We discuss how our results can guide future controlled numerical experiments that aim to elucidate the key parameters governing galactic winds and the resulting associated preventative feedback.

We characterize mass, momentum, energy and metal outflow rates of multi-phase galactic winds in a suite of FIRE-2 cosmological "zoom-in" simulations from the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. We analyze simulations of low-mass dwarfs, intermediate-mass dwarfs, Milky Way-mass halos, and high-redshift massive halos. Consistent with previous work, we find that dwarfs eject about 100 times more gas from their interstellar medium (ISM) than they form in stars, while this mass "loading factor" drops below one in massive galaxies. Most of the mass is carried by the hot phase ($>10^5$ K) in massive halos and the warm phase ($10^3-10^5$ K) in dwarfs; cold outflows ($<10^3$ K) are negligible except in high-redshift dwarfs. Energy, momentum and metal loading factors from the ISM are of order unity in dwarfs and significantly lower in more massive halos. Hot outflows have $2-5\times$ higher specific energy than needed to escape from the gravitational potential of dwarf halos; indeed, in dwarfs, the mass, momentum, and metal outflow rates increase with radius whereas energy is roughly conserved, indicating swept up halo gas. Burst-averaged mass loading factors tend to be larger during more powerful star formation episodes and when the inner halo is not virialized, but we see effectively no trend with the dense ISM gas fraction. We discuss how our results can guide future controlled numerical experiments that aim to elucidate the key parameters governing galactic winds and the resulting associated preventative feedback.

The Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science program observed the Extended Groth Strip (EGS) with the Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) on the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) in 2022. In this paper, we discuss the four MIRI pointings that observed with longer-wavelength filters, including F770W, F1000W, F1280W, F1500W, F1800W, and F2100W. We compare the MIRI galaxies with the Spitzer/MIPS 24 μm population in the EGS field. We find that MIRI can observe an order of magnitude deeper than MIPS in significantly shorter integration times, attributable to JWST's much larger aperture and MIRI’s improved sensitivity. MIRI is exceptionally good at finding faint (L IR < 1010 L ⊙) galaxies at z ∼ 1-2. We find that a significant portion of MIRI galaxies are “mid-IR weak”—they have strong near-IR emission and relatively weaker mid-IR emission, and most of the star formation is unobscured. We present new IR templates that capture how the mid-to-near-IR emission changes with increasing infrared luminosity. We present two color-color diagrams to separate mid-IR weak galaxies and active galactic nuclei (AGN) from dusty star-forming galaxies and find that these color diagrams are most effective when used in conjunction with each other. We present the first number counts of 10 μm sources and find that there are ≲10 IR AGN per MIRI pointing, possibly due to the difficulty of distinguishing AGN from intrinsically mid-IR weak galaxies (due to low metallicities or dust content). We conclude that MIRI is most effective at observing moderate-luminosity (L IR = 109-1010 L ⊙) galaxies at z = 1-2, and that photometry alone is not effective at identifying AGN within this faint population.

We report the discovery of a candidate galaxy with a photo-z of z ~ 12 in the first epoch of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science Survey. Following conservative selection criteria, we identify a source with a robust zphot = 11.8-0.2+0.3 (1σ uncertainty) with mF200W = 27.3 and ≥7σ detections in five filters. The source is not detected at λ < 1.4 μm in deep imaging from both Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and JWST and has faint ~3σ detections in JWST F150W and HST F160W, which signal a Lyα break near the red edge of both filters, implying z ~ 12. This object (Maisie's Galaxy) exhibits F115W-F200W > 1.9 mag (2σ lower limit) with a blue continuum slope, resulting in 99.6% of the photo-z probability distribution function favoring z > 11. All data-quality images show no artifacts at the candidate's position, and independent analyses consistently find a strong preference for z > 11. Its colors are inconsistent with Galactic stars, and it is resolved (rh = 340 ± 14 pc). Maisie's Galaxy has log M∗/M⊙ ~ 8.5 and is highly star-forming (log sSFR~-8.2 yr-1), with a blue rest- UV color (β~-2.5) indicating little dust, though not extremely low metallicity. While the presence of this source is in tension with most predictions, it agrees with empirical extrapolations assuming UV luminosity functions that smoothly decline with increasing redshift. Should follow-up spectroscopy validate this redshift, our universe was already aglow with galaxies less than 400 Myr after the Big Bang.

We provide an overview of the science case, instrument configuration and project plan for the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background experiment CMB-S4, for consideration by the 2020 Decadal Survey.

We present the science case, reference design, and project plan for the Stage-4 ground-based cosmic microwave background experiment CMB-S4.