Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Restraining the rapid growth of operational carbon emissions from residential buildings is critical to achieve carbon neutrality. To illustrate the future decarbonization roadmap, this study builds an end-use emissions model to analyze past decarbonization efforts and projected emission change in China's residential building operations by mid-century. From 2001 to 2018, residential building operations reduced emissions by 2.77 (±1.61) giga tons of carbon dioxide (GtCO2). Dynamic simulation results of the emission model reveal that residential building operations will peak in 2031 (±3) with 0.95 (±0.06) GtCO2. Energy-related carbon intensity (∼44%) and energy intensity (∼36%) are identified as the primary factors affecting carbon peak status, with heating (∼87%) playing a crucial role in energy intensity. A feasible emission path towards carbon neutrality suggests limiting urban and rural residential building emissions to 0.38 and 0.27 GtCO2 in 2030, respectively, and offsetting only 0.03 and 0.01 GtCO2 in urban and rural regions by 2060, to become carbon free. Overall, the study proposes a stepwise data analysis benchmark to decarbonize the residential building operations of top emitters, contributing to global building decarbonization in the era of carbon neutrality.