UC San Diego

Objectives

This study investigates primary peer-referral engagement (PRE) strategies to assess which strategy results in engaging higher numbers of people with HIV (PWH) who are virally unsuppressed.

Design

We develop a modeling study that simulates an HIV epidemic (transmission, disease progression, and viral evolution) over 6 years using an agent-based model followed by simulating PRE strategies. We investigate two PRE strategies where referrals are based on social network strategies (SNS) or sexual partner contact tracing (SPCT).

Methods

We parameterize, calibrate, and validate our study using data from Chicago on Black sexual minority men to assess these strategies for a population with high incidence and prevalence of HIV. For each strategy, we calculate the number of PWH recruited who are undiagnosed or out-of-care (OoC) and the number of direct or indirect transmissions.

Results

SNS and SPCT identified 256.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 234-279] and 15 (95% CI 7-27) PWH, respectively. Of these, SNS identified 159 (95% CI 142-177) PWH OoC and 32 (95% CI 21-43) PWH undiagnosed compared with 9 (95% CI 3-18) and 2 (95% CI 0-5) for SPCT. SNS identified 15.5 (95% CI 6-25) and 7.5 (95% CI 2-11) indirect and direct transmission pairs, whereas SPCT identified 6 (95% CI 0-8) and 5 (95% CI 0-8), respectively.

Conclusion

With no testing constraints, SNS is the more effective strategy to identify undiagnosed and OoC PWH. Neither strategy is successful at identifying sufficient indirect or direct transmission pairs to investigate transmission networks.