Skip to main content
eScholarship
Open Access Publications from the University of California

Scholarly Works (3 results)

  • Article
  • Peer Reviewed
Faculty Publications (2003)
 Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone is expected for the 21st century. An assessment on changes in the tropospheric oxidative state through a model intercomparison (“OxComp”) was conducted for the IPCC Third Assessment Report (IPCC-TAR). OxComp estimated tropospheric changes in ozone and other oxidants during the 21st century based on the “SRES” A2p emission scenario. In this study we analyze the results of 11 chemical transport models (CTMs) that participated in OxComp and use them as input for detailed radiative forcing calculations. We also address future ozone recovery in the lower stratosphere and its impact on radiative forcing by applying two models that calculate both tropospheric and stratospheric changes. The results of OxComp suggest an increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone between 11.4 and 20.5 DU for the 21st century, representing the model uncertainty range for the A2p scenario. As the A2p scenario constitutes the worst case proposed in IPCC-TAR we consider these results as an upper estimate. The radiative transfer model yields a positive radiative forcing ranging from 0.40 to 0.78 W m−2 on a global and annual average. The lower stratosphere contributes an additional 7.5–9.3 DU to the calculated increase in the ozone column, increasing radiative forcing by 0.15–0.17 W m−2. The modeled radiative forcing depends on the height distribution and geographical pattern of predicted ozone changes and shows a distinct seasonal variation. Despite the large variations between the 11 participating models, the calculated range for normalized radiative forcing is within 25%, indicating the ability to scale radiative forcing to global-mean ozone column change.
    Cover page: Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphereCreative Commons 'BY' version 4.0 license
    • Article
    • Peer Reviewed
    UC Irvine Previously Published Works (2006)

    Changes in atmospheric ozone have occurred since the preindustrial era as a result of increasing anthropogenic emissions. Within ACCENT, a European Network of Excellence, ozone changes between 1850 and 2000 are assessed for the troposphere and the lower stratosphere (up to 30 km) by a variety of seven chemistry-climate models and three chemical transport models. The modeled ozone changes are taken as input for detailed calculations of radiative forcing.

    When only changes in chemistry are considered (constant climate) the modeled global-mean tropospheric ozone column increase since preindustrial times ranges from 7.9 DU to 13.8 DU among the ten participating models, while the stratospheric column reduction lies between 14.1 DU and 28.6 DU in the models considering stratospheric chemistry. The resulting radiative forcing is strongly dependent on the location and altitude of the modeled ozone change and varies between 0.25 Wm−2 and 0.45 Wm−2 due to ozone change in the troposphere and −0.123 Wm−2 and +0.066 Wm−2 due to the stratospheric ozone change.

    Changes in ozone and other greenhouse gases since preindustrial times have altered climate. Six out of the ten participating models have performed an additional calculation taking into account both chemical and climate change. In most models the isolated effect of climate change is an enhancement of the tropospheric ozone column increase, while the stratospheric reduction becomes slightly less severe. In the three climate-chemistry models with detailed tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry the inclusion of climate change increases the resulting radiative forcing due to tropospheric ozone change by up to 0.10 Wm−2, while the radiative forcing due to stratospheric ozone change is reduced by up to 0.034 Wm−2.

    Considering tropospheric and stratospheric change combined, the total ozone column change is negative while the resulting net radiative forcing is positive.

      Cover page: Radiative forcing since preindustrial times due to ozone change in the troposphere and the lower stratosphereCreative Commons 'BY' version 4.0 license
      • Article
      • Peer Reviewed
      Faculty Publications (2003)
      Two sets of sea surface temperature/sea ice changes are used to test the sensitivity of tracer transport to the pattern of warming in the doubled CO2 climate. One set (2CO2WT) has greater tropical and high latitude sea surface temperature changes than the other (2CO2), although both fall within the range of plausible response. Simulations were done both with and without interactive ozone. Results show that the SST pattern affects the circulation change throughout the troposphere and middle atmosphere; the ozone interaction affects primarily the upper stratosphere, but through wave-mean flow interaction has effects that extend down into the upper troposphere. Both experiments feature increased tropospheric/stratospheric exchange at low latitudes and greater vertical mixing within the troposphere; only the WT experiments result in increased interhemispheric transport and a more direct circulation in the high latitude stratosphere. Ozone increases in the upper stratosphere and decreases in the lower stratosphere in all the simulations, with greater transport of high latitude ozone into the troposphere in the WT runs. At sea level there is a more positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO)-type oscillation, and this is also true at 100 mbar, but there is no significance in the middle troposphere and the sign is different in the middle stratosphere. Many of these results differ from those generated in older versions of the GISS GCMAM despite the same SST forcing due to differences in control run characteristics, which has implications for model intercomparison experiments.
        Cover page: Fresh air in the 21st century?Creative Commons 'BY' version 4.0 license
        Top