The disintegration of several Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves has focused attention on the state of the Larsen C Ice Shelf. Here, we use satellite observations to map ice shelf speed from the years 2000, 2006 and 2008 and apply inverse modeling to examine the spatial pattern of ice-shelf stiffness. Results show that the northern half of the ice shelf has been accelerating since 2000, speeding up by 15% between 2000 and 2006 alone. The distribution of ice stiffness exhibits large spatial variations that we link to tributary glacier flow and fractures. Our results reveal that ice down-flow from promontories is consistently softer, with the exception of Churchill Peninsula where we infer a stabilizing role for marine ice. We conclude that although Larsen C is not facing imminent collapse, it is undergoing significant change in the form of flow acceleration that is spatially related to thinning and fracture. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Marine ice, sometimes as part of an ice mélange, significantly affects ice shelf flow and ice fracture. The highly heterogeneous structure of the Brunt/Stancomb-Wills Ice Shelf (BSW) system in the east Weddell Sea offers a rare setting for uncovering the difference in rheology between meteoric and marine ice. Here, we use data assimilation to infer the rheology of the Brunt/Stancomb-Wills Ice Shelf by an inverse control method that combines interferometric synthetic aperture radar measurements with numerical modeling. We then apply the inferred rheology to support the hypothesis attributing the observed 1970s ice shelf flow acceleration to a change in the stiffness of the ice mélange area connecting Brunt proper with Stancomb-Wills and to examine the consequences of frontal rift propagation. We conclude that while the Brunt/Stancomb-Wills system is currently not susceptible to extreme fragmentation similar to that of the Larsen B Ice Shelf in 2002, our inverse and forward modeling results emphasize its vulnerability to destabilization by relatively rapid changes in the ice mélange properties, resulting from the interaction of its marine ice component with ocean water, or by the further propagation of a frontal rift. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

A new, complete velocity field from satellite remote sensing is combined with numerical modeling to infer the rheology of the Larsen B Ice Shelf before its disintegration. The resulting spatial distribution of the flow parameter exhibits large variability, which reflects very well observed ice shelf features. This variability is explained by factors including advection of colder ice from tributary glaciers, bottom melting, and the presence of zones of strong shear and fracture. The inferred distribution is applied to simulate numerically the flow regime ofthe ice shelf and to examine its modification by the presence of open rifts and by the retreat of ice shelf front between 1996 and 2000. Results demonstrate that variable rheology is essential to understanding ice shelf evolution, especially the close relationship among frontal retreat, fracture, ice flow acceleration, and the destabilization of ice shelves. Copyright 2007 by the American. Geophysical Union.

The calving of icebergs from large Antarctic ice shelves is controlled mainly by the formation and propagation of rifts originating from the side margins of the ice shelf and local areas of grounding. Using InSAR, we observe the evolution of rifts along Hemmen Ice Rise, on Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica prior to the large calving event of October 1998. We couple these observations with a computer model combining the viscous flow of an ice shelf with a linear elastic fracture mechanics description of the propagation of rifts. The model reveals that the ice melange trapped in between the rifts exerts a major control on the propagation of rifts, and in turn on ice shelf stability. Melting of the ice melange from oceanic or atmospheric warming would significantly increase the propagation rate of rifts and threaten the ice-shelf stability. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

The sudden propagation of a major preexisting rift (full-thickness crack) in late 2016 on the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica led to the calving of tabular iceberg A68 in July 2017, one of the largest icebergs on record, posing a threat for the stability of the remaining ice shelf. As with other ice shelves, the physical processes that led to the activation of the A68 rift and controlled its propagation have not been elucidated. Here, we model the response of the ice shelf stress balance to ice shelf thinning and thinning of the ice mélange encased in and around preexisting rifts. We find that ice shelf thinning does not reactivate the rifts, but heals them. In contrast, thinning of the mélange controls the opening rate of the rift, with an above-linear dependence on thinning. The simulations indicate that thinning of the ice mélange by 10 to 20 m is sufficient to reactivate the rifts and trigger a major calving event, thereby establishing a link between climate forcing and ice shelf retreat that has not been included in ice sheet models. Rift activation could initiate ice shelf retreat decades prior to hydrofracture caused by water ponding at the ice shelf surface.

The bed topography beneath the Greenland ice sheet controls the flow of ice and its discharge into the ocean. Outlet glaciers move through a set of narrow valleys whose detailed geometry is poorly known, especially along the southern coasts1-3. As a result, the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet and its glaciers to sea-level change in the coming century is uncertain. Here, we combine sparse ice-thickness data derived from airborne radar soundings with satellite-derived high-resolution ice motion data through a mass conservation optimization scheme5. We infer ice thickness and bed topography along the entire periphery of the Greenland ice sheet at an unprecedented level of spatial detail and precision. We detect widespread ice-covered valleys that extend significantly deeper below sea level and farther inland than previously thought. Our findings imply that the outlet glaciers of Greenland, and the ice sheet as a whole, are probably more vulnerable to ocean thermal forcing and peripheral thinning than inferred previously from existing numerical ice-sheet models. © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited.

Ice flow models used to project the mass balance of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica usually rely on the Shallow Ice Approximation (SIA) and the Shallow-Shelf Approximation (SSA), sometimes combined into so-called "hybrid" models. Such models, while computationally efficient, are based on a simplified set of physical assumptions about the mechanical regime of the ice flow, which does not uniformly apply everywhere on the ice sheet/ice shelf system, especially near grounding lines, where rapid changes are taking place at present. Here, we present a new thermomechanical finite element model of ice flow named ISSM (Ice Sheet System Model) that includes higher-order stresses, high spatial resolution capability and data assimilation techniques to better capture ice dynamics and produce realistic simulations of ice sheet flow at the continental scale. ISSM includes several approximations of the momentum balance equations, ranging from the two-dimensional SSA to the three-dimensional full-Stokes formulation. It also relies on a massively parallelized architecture and state-of-the-art scalable tools. ISSM employs data assimilation techniques, at all levels of approximation of the momentum balance equations, to infer basal drag at the ice-bed interface from satellite radar interferometry-derived observations of ice motion. Following a validation of ISSM with standard benchmarks, we present a demonstration of its capability in the case of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We show ISSM is able to simulate the ice flow of an entire ice sheet realistically at a high spatial resolution, with higher-order physics, thereby providing a pathway for improving projections of ice sheet evolution in a warming climate. Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.

Modeling of grounding line migration is essential to accurately simulate the behavior of marine ice sheets and investigate their stability. Here, we assess the sensitivity of numerical models to the parameterization of the grounding line position. We run the MISMIP3D benchmark experiments using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) and a two-dimensional shelfy-stream approximation (SSA) model with different mesh resolutions and different sub-element parameterizations of grounding line position. Results show that different grounding line parameterizations lead to different steady state grounding line positions as well as different retreat/advance rates. Our simulations explain why some vertically depth-averaged model simulations deviate significantly from the vast majority of simulations based on SSA in the MISMIP3D benchmark. The results reveal that differences between simulations performed with and without sub-element parameterization are as large as those performed with different approximations of the stress balance equations in this configuration. They also demonstrate that the reversibility test is passed at relatively coarse resolution while much finer resolutions are needed to accurately capture the steady-state grounding line position. We conclude that fixed grid SSA models that do not employ such a parameterization should be avoided, as they do not provide accurate estimates of grounding line dynamics, even at high spatial resolution. For models that include sub-element grounding line parameterization, in the MISMIP3D configuration, a mesh resolution finer than 2 km should be employed.

Airborne radar sounding is difficult in South Greenland because of the presence of englacial water, which prevents the signal from reaching the bed. Data coverage remains suboptimal for traditional methods of ice-thickness and bed mapping that rely on geostatistical techniques, such as kriging, because important features are missing. Here we apply two alternative approaches of highresolution (̃300 m) ice-thickness mapping, that are based on the conservation of mass, to two regions of South Greenland: (1) Qooqqup Sermia and Kiattuut Sermiat, and (2) Ikertivaq. These two algorithms solve optimization problems, for which the conservation of mass is either enforced as a hard constraint, or as a soft constraint. For the first region, very few measurements are available but there is no gap in ice motion data, whereas for Ikertivaq, more ice-thickness measurements are available, but there are gaps in ice motion data. We show that mass-conservation algorithms can be used as validation tools for radar sounding. We also show that it is preferable to apply mass conservation as a hard constraint, rather than a soft constraint, as it better preserves elongated features, such as glacial valleys and ridges.