For tens of thousands of years, passenger pigeons (Ectopistes migratorius) were a dominant member of eastern North American forest communities, with megaflocks comprising up to several billion individuals. The extinction of passenger pigeons in the early twentieth century undoubtedly influenced associated species and ecosystems as interactions stemming from the pigeons disappeared suddenly. Here, we strive to better understand what was probably one of the most significant of these interactions-that between passenger pigeons and seed bearing trees. Using the band-tailed pigeon (Patagioenas fasciata) and the rock dove (Columba livia) as physical and ecological proxies, we evaluated passenger pigeon dietary range and potential to disperse seeds. Our findings suggest that the passenger pigeon's dietary range, observed historically to be taxonomically broad, was constrained to certain seed sizes due to bill gape size. In addition, we conclude that the digestive process invariably destroyed consumed seeds but the potential for a nutrition/dispersal mutualism might still have existed via regurgitation and post-mortem release of crop contents. Our results highlight the range of ecological interactions that can be lost with species' extinction and the inherent challenge of understanding the consequences of those interactions.

n this study, we present the results of nitrogen deposition on land from a set of 29 simulations from six different tropospheric chemistry models pertaining to present-day and 2100 conditions. Nitrogen deposition refers here to the deposition (wet and dry) of all nitrogen-containing gas phase chemical species resulting from NO_x (NO + NO₂) emissions. We show that under the assumed IPCC SRES A2 scenario the global annual average nitrogen deposition over land is expected to increase by a factor of ∼2.5, mostly because of the increase in nitrogen emissions. This will significantly expand the areas with annual average deposition exceeding 1 gN/m²/year. Using the results from all models, we have documented the strong linear relationship between models on the fraction of the nitrogen emissions that is deposited, regardless of the emissions (present day or 2100). On average, approximately 70% of the emitted nitrogen is deposited over the landmasses. For present-day conditions the results from this study suggest that the deposition over land ranges between 25 and 40 Tg(N)/year. By 2100, under the A2 scenario, the deposition over the continents is expected to range between 60 and 100 Tg(N)/year. Over forests the deposition is expected to increase from 10 Tg(N)/year to 20 Tg(N)/year. In 2100 the nitrogen deposition changes from changes in the climate account for much less than the changes from increased nitrogen emissions.

Background

We aimed to identify factors associated with a significant reduction in SLE disease activity over 12 months assessed by the BILAG Index.

Methods

In an international SLE cohort, we studied patients from their 'inception enrolment' visit. We also defined an 'active disease' cohort of patients who had active disease similar to that needed for enrolment into clinical trials. Outcomes at 12 months were; Major Clinical Response (MCR: reduction to classic BILAG C in all domains, steroid dose of ≤7.5 mg and SLEDAI ≤ 4) and 'Improvement' (reduction to ≤1B score in previously active organs; no new BILAG A/B; stable or reduced steroid dose; no increase in SLEDAI). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression with Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and cross-validation in randomly split samples were used to build prediction models.

Results

'Inception enrolment' (n = 1492) and 'active disease' (n = 924) patients were studied. Models for MCR performed well (ROC AUC = .777 and .732 in the inception enrolment and active disease cohorts, respectively). Models for Improvement performed poorly (ROC AUC = .574 in the active disease cohort). MCR in both cohorts was associated with anti-malarial use and inversely associated with active disease at baseline (BILAG or SLEDAI) scores, BILAG haematological A/B scores, higher steroid dose and immunosuppressive use.

Conclusion

Baseline predictors of response in SLE can help identify patients in clinic who are less likely to respond to standard therapy. They are also important as stratification factors when designing clinical trials in order to better standardize overall usual care response rates.