School of Public Health

California’s state government, employers and households are concerned about the future affordability of healthcare. We use health expenditure data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ Office of the Actuary to forecast California’s health expenditures from 2013 to 2022 and identify factors driving expenditure increases. Real health expenditures per capita (2013$) are forecasted to increase from $8,398 to $11,421 (or 36%), resulting in health expenditures increasing from 14.5% to 16.0% of California’s economy. Expenditure increases are mostly driven by gains in real income per capita (40-60%), followed by medical-specific inflation (23%), an aging population (14%), and insurance coverage gains (8%). The -4% to 16% residual is attributable to changes in the volume and mix of services and technology. Several innovations could potentially dampen these increases, such as shared-risk, value-based payment models, practice redesign initiatives, lower cost settings and healthcare professionals, many of which are found in accountable care organizations.

Adult salmon that stray when they escape into non-natal streams to spawn is a natural phenomenon that promotes population growth and genetic diversity, but excessive stray rates impede adult abundance restoration efforts. Adult San Joaquin River (SJR) Basin fall-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) that return to freshwater to spawn migrate through the San Francisco Bay and Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta (Delta). The Delta has been heavily affected by land development and water diversion. During the fall time-period for the years 1979 to 2007 Delta pumping facilities diverted on average 340% of the total inflow volume that entered the Delta from the SJR. The hypothesis tested in this paper is that river flow and Delta exports are not significantly correlated with SJR salmon stray rates. Adult coded-wire-tagged salmon recoveries from Central Valley rivers were used to estimate the percentage of SJR Basin salmon that strayed to the Sacramento River Basin. SJR salmon stray rates were negatively correlated (P = 0.05) with the average magnitude of pulse flows (e.g., 10 d) in mid- to late-October and positively correlated (P = 0.10) with mean Delta export rates. It was not possible to differentiate between the effects of pulse flows in October and mean flows in October and November on stray rates because of the co-linearity between these two variables. Whether SJR-reduced pulse flow or elevated exports causes increased stray rates is unclear. Statistically speaking the results indicate that flow is the primary factor. However empirical data indicates that little if any pulse flow leaves the Delta when south Delta exports are elevated, so exports in combination with pulse flows may explain the elevated stray rates. For management purposes, we developed two statistical models that predict SJR salmon stray rate: (1) flow and export as co-independent variables; and (2) south Delta Export (E) and SJR inflow (I) in the form of an E:I ratio.

In this article, we describe an elective course using readers’ theater with students in the health care professions and the arts. Readers' theater is a technique used for the performance of literature in which texts are staged with minimal production values and scripts are not fully memorized. These techniques are drawn upon more commonly in theater and performance studies classrooms, but we found them to be effective as tools for connecting future health care providers with their local communities. With a central theme of age and aging, we chose non-dramatic works of literature and adapted them for dramatic readings at retirement communities in Berkeley and Oakland, California.

Gender norms have been posited to impact intimate partner violence (IPV), but there is scant evidence of the longitudinal association between community-level gender norms and IPV. Using longitudinal data on 3,965 married girls surveyed in India, we fitted mixed-effects ordinal and binary logistic regression models for physical IPV intensity and occurrence of sexual IPV. We found a 26% increase in the odds that women experience frequent physical IPV per one unit increase in greater community-level equitable gender norms. We did not find an association between community-level equitable gender norms and sexual IPV. Findings suggest that the relationship between gender norms and physical and sexual IPV differs, indicating the need for tailored interventions for different types of IPV.

BACKGROUND: Structural racisms influence on workforce policies and practices presents possible upstream targets for assessing and reducing racial health disparities. This study is the first to examine workforce racial diversity in association with racial disparities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study of 39 693 hourly autoworkers from three Michigan automobile plants, includes 75 years of follow-up (1941-2015). Workforce racial diversity (per cent black autoworkers) was a plant and year level variable. Annual exposure was cumulated over each individuals working life and divided by time since hire. This time-varying measure was categorised into low, moderate and high. We estimated age-standardised rates of CVD and Cox proportional HRs by race. RESULTS: CVD mortality per 100 000 person-years decreased among autoworkers over the study period; however, black workers rates remained higher than white workers. Among black workers, we observed a strong protective association between greater workforce racial diversity and CVD mortality. For example, at the Detroit plant, the HR for moderate exposure to racial diversity was 0.94 (0.83, 1.08) and dropped to 0.78 (0.67, 0.90) at the highest level. Among white workers, results were mixed by plant, with protective effects in plants where less than 20% of workers were black and null results where black workers became the majority. CONCLUSION: Our findings provide evidence that workplace racial diversity may reduce CVD mortality risk among black workers. Workplace practices encouraging diverse hiring and retention have potential to improve all workers health; particularly the socially racialised groups in that workforce.

Vector mosquito control is an integral part of malaria control. The global emergence of insecticide resistance in malaria-transmitting Anophelines has become an impediment and has created an urgent need for novel mosquito control approaches. Here, we show that a biopesticide derived from the soil-dwelling bacterium Chromobacterium sp. Panama (Csp_P) kills insecticide-resistant Anopheles mosquitoes, regardless of their resistance mechanisms. In addition, sublethal dose of Csp_P acts as a synergist to now used chemical insecticides across multiple classes. Moreover, Csp_P reduces host-seeking behavior and malaria parasite infection in vector mosquitoes in ways that further decrease transmission. Mosquito glutathione S-transferases are essential for Csp_Ps mosquito-killing mechanism. Enclosed field trials in Burkina Faso, conducted in diverse ecological settings and supported by a mathematical model, have now demonstrated its potential for malaria control in settings with widespread insecticide resistance.

Illness narratives invite practitioners to understand how biomedical and traditional health information is incorporated, integrated, or otherwise internalized into a patient's own sense of self and social identity. Such narratives also reveal cultural values, underlying patterns in society, and the overall life context of the narrator. Most illness narratives have been examined from the perspective of European-derived genres and literary theory, even though theorists from other parts of the globe have developed locally relevant literary theories. Further, illness narratives typically examine only the experience of illness through acute or chronic suffering (and potential recovery). The advent of biomedical disease prevention methods like post- and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PEP and PrEP) for HIV, which require daily pill consumption or regular injections, complicates the notion of an illness narrative by including illness prevention in narrative accounts. This paper has two aims. First, we aim to rectify the Eurocentrism of existing illness narrative theory by incorporating insights from African literary theorists; second, we complicate the category by examining prevention narratives as a subset of illness narratives. We do this by investigating several narratives of HIV prevention from informants enrolled in an HIV prevention trial in Kenya and Uganda in 2022.

There is limited information about accountable care organization (ACO) variation in equity of ambulatory care quality. We examine whether equity of care changed for racial and ethnic minority patients from 2019 to 2022 and the extent to which equity of care performance varied for 11 ACOs in Massachusetts over time. We analyzed ACO-level changes in equity of care for 8 ambulatory care quality measures for Asian, Black, and Hispanic patients, measured as the percentage point difference between each group and the majority non-Hispanic White patient group. Cervical cancer screening (3.54 percentage point change, P < 0.001), colorectal cancer screening (3.54 percentage point change, P < 0.001), and eye exams for adults with diabetes (3.56 percentage point change, P = 0.008) had the largest performance declines. Equity of ambulatory care quality did not significantly change over time. The one exception was for breast cancer screening, where equity declined for Asian patients (3.52 percentage point change, P = 0.04). Although equity of care generally did not significantly change over time across ACOs, high variation in equity of care performance between ACOs highlights opportunities to identify and share the strategies that enable physician practices and healthcare systems to advance equity of care for racial and ethnic minority patients.

With drastic changes to abortion policy, the months following the Dobbs leak and subsequent decision in 2022 were a uniquely uncertain and difficult time for abortion access in the United States. To understand experiences of challenges to abortion access during that time, we used a hybrid inductive and deductive thematic coding approach to analyse descriptions of barriers and their impacts shared in an abortion subreddit (r/abortion). A simple random sample of 10% of posts was obtained from those shared from 02 May 2022 through 23 December 2022; comments were purposively sampled during the coding process. In this sample of submissions (n = 523 posts, 88 comments), people described structural barriers identified in past research, including state abortion bans and gestational limits, high costs, limited appointment availability, and long travel required. Posters also commonly described known social barriers, including limited social support and abortion stigma. Several impactful barriers not well-described in past research emerged inductively, including wait time for receiving mail-ordered abortion medication, low credibility of online ordering platforms, and concerns about legal risks of accessing abortion or related medical care. The most common consequences of experiencing barriers were adverse mental health outcomes, delayed access to care, and being compelled to self-manage their abortion because of access barriers. This analysis provides timely insights into the experiences and impacts of abortion access barriers in a group of people with a range of engagement with clinical abortion care, lived experiences, and points in their abortion processes, with public health implications for mental health and abortion access.