UCSF

Early prediction of whether a liver allograft will be utilized for transplantation may allow better resource deployment during donor management and improve organ allocation. The national donor management goals (DMG) registry contains critical care data collected during donor management. We developed a machine learning model to predict transplantation of a liver graft based on data from the DMG registry.

Methods

Several machine learning classifiers were trained to predict transplantation of a liver graft. We utilized 127 variables available in the DMG dataset. We included data from potential deceased organ donors between April 2012 and January 2019. The outcome was defined as liver recovery for transplantation in the operating room. The prediction was made based on data available 12-18 h after the time of authorization for transplantation. The data were randomly separated into training (60%), validation (20%), and test sets (20%). We compared the performance of our models to the Liver Discard Risk Index.

Results

Of 13 629 donors in the dataset, 9255 (68%) livers were recovered and transplanted, 1519 recovered but used for research or discarded, 2855 were not recovered. The optimized gradient boosting machine classifier achieved an area under the curve of the receiver operator characteristic of 0.84 on the test set, outperforming all other classifiers.

Conclusions

This model predicts successful liver recovery for transplantation in the operating room, using data available early during donor management. It performs favorably when compared to existing models. It may provide real-time decision support during organ donor management and transplant logistics.