UCSF

OBJECTIVE: It is not currently possible to predict long-term functional dependency in patients with disorders of consciousness (DoC) after traumatic brain injury (TBI). Our objective was to fit and externally validate a prediction model for 1-year dependency in patients with DoC ≥ 2 weeks after TBI. METHODS: We included adults with TBI enrolled in TBI Model Systems (TBI-MS) or Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in TBI (TRACK-TBI) studies who were not following commands at rehabilitation admission or 2 weeks post-injury, respectively. We fit a logistic regression model in TBI-MS and validated it in TRACK-TBI. The primary outcome was death or dependency at 1 year post-injury, defined using the Disability Rating Scale. RESULTS: In the TBI-MS Discovery Sample, 1,960 participants (mean age 40 [18] years, 76% male, 68% white) met inclusion criteria, and 406 (27%) were dependent 1 year post-injury. In a TBI-MS held out cohort, the dependency prediction models area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.79 (95% CI 0.74-0.85), positive predictive value was 53% and negative predictive value was 86%. In the TRACK-TBI external validation (n = 124, age 40 [16] years, 77% male, 81% white), the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.66 (0.53, 0.79), equivalent to the standard IMPACTcore + CT score (p = 0.8). INTERPRETATION: We developed a 1-year dependency prediction model using the largest existing cohort of patients with DoC after TBI. The sensitivity and negative predictive values were greater than specificity and positive predictive values. Accuracy was diminished in an external sample, but equivalent to the IMPACT model. Further research is needed to improve dependency prediction in patients with DoC after TBI. ANN NEUROL 2023;94:1008-1023.