Climate Science and Policy

Microclimates can behave differently from the larger regional climate, and it is essential to consider various spatiotemporal scales when studying how climate change affects local ecosystems. This research identifies small-scale climate variations within Channel Islands National Park (CINP), particularly in areas where species might find refuge to adapt to climate change. The study identifies different climate characteristics in this region by creating a microclimate framework and analyzing historical data accordingly. It also explains the need for scaling down climate information to the ecosystem level and provides a literature review of all known criteria necessary. The goal is to help inform park managers of local conditions and potential threats to prioritize areas for conservation and restoring biodiversity and natural resources. While global and regional climate models help understand broad trends, they often need more detail to grasp ecological changes at the community or individual species level. Scaling down climate information can enhance the accuracy of predictive models used in environmental assessments and impact studies, and identifying existing microclimates can help assess the overall health of an ecosystem. The research categorizes the scaling process into four levels: macro, meso, topo, and micro. It outlines the procedure for identifying microclimates, analyzes model predictions, illustrates future climate scenarios, and highlights correlations between various physical factors using recent climatological observations. The study starts with a review of existing literature to provide context for each climate variable's impact on the overall ecosystem, explains the research methods, presents the results, and concludes with a discussion of the findings and suggestions for future research beyond the scope of this study. The research was conducted in collaboration with The Nature Conservancy and the National Park Service to address the specific needs of the park.