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Misperceived Inequality, Mismatched Attitudes, and Missing Support for Redistribution

Abstract

This dissertation addresses the connections between politics and economic inequality. Although the main chapters are three independent essays, they share underlying research questions about redistribution: why do we observe significant differences in the amount of redistribution across democratic nations, and why do unequal countries redistribute less than do countries that are already more equal to begin with?

In Chapter 2, I investigate why the level of economic inequality does not explain the amount of redistribution by focusing on an individual’s perception about inequality. I argue that the amount of redistribution does not correspond to the extent of economic inequality because the assumption of the model that voters accurately perceive inequality does not hold. I will demonstrate this by examining survey data and revealing that people do not necessarily know how unequal their society is. People demand a larger public redistribution only if they perceive high inequality.

In Chapter 3, I ask who within a polity underestimates inequality and what consequences does this underestimation have for politics. In Japan, there are more people who underestimate inequality than people who overestimate it. Why do Japanese underestimate inequality rather than overestimate it? I argue that people living in a relatively equal area within a country are more likely to underestimate inequality than those living in a relatively unequal area. The statistical analysis reveals three things. First, certain demographic and political factors systematically affect the probability of underestimation at the individual level. Second, the degree of underestimation varies across prefectures in Japan. Third, underestimation of inequality affects electoral outcomes.

In Chapter 4, I show how individuals’ income and motivation affect their turnout decisions. Turnout rises as income increases. At the same time, motivation (driven by the salience of the outcome for voters) has a positive effect on turnout as well. This effect of motivation on turnout is stronger among the wealthy than among the poor. Thus, motivation can further widen the gap in turnout between haves and have-nots.

These findings suggest that we should pay more attention to subjective aspects of inequality. It is perceived inequality that matters to politics of redistribution.

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