Department of Economics, UCSD

Fisheries are subject to multiple forms of uncertainty. One of these, parameter uncertainty, has been largely ignored in the fisheries economics literature even though it is known elsewhere (e.g., macroeconomics) to play an important role in models with a similar structure. We model management of a renewable resource with unknown growth parameters and simulate estimation of the key parameters of the growth equation. Even with predictability high by typical standards and the true data generating process serving as the model, management of the fishery is problematic. A simple heuristic alternative making less intensive use of the data performs better.