UC San Diego

This dissertation consists of three chapters. In Chapter 1, I study the macroeconomic consequences of eradicating malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. To do so, I combine a general-equilibrium overlapping generations model with reduced-form empirical evidence. I find eliminating malaria in a representative sub-Saharan Africa through vaccination would increase the GDP per capita by 30% in the long run, which is nearly ten times larger than previously estimated. I also find that the gains stem from larger investments in human capital, amplified over multiple generations.

In Chapter 2, in work joint with Titan Alon, Natalie Cox, and Arlene Wong, we study the welfare and productivity consequences of rising student debts in the United States. We first empirically estimate how student debts affect workers' early career outcomes using NLSY panel data. Then we construct a quantitative life-cycle model calibrated to match the empirical evidence and evaluate the federal student loan policies. We find that student debt forgiveness or repayment elongation policies improve welfare and labor productivity. The model suggests that a big chunk of the productivity gain comes from a small fraction of the workforce, who switch occupations in response to the policies.

In Chapter 3, in work joint with Titan Alon, David Lagakos, and Mitchell VanVuren, we provide a quantitative macroeconomic framework to study why emerging markets fared worse relative to advanced economies and low-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. We adopt a workhorse incomplete-markets macro model to include epidemiological dynamics alongside key economic and demographic characteristics that distinguish countries of different income levels. We conclude that emerging markets fared especially poorly due to their high employment share in occupations requiring social interactions and their low level of public transfers. In contrast, low-income countries fared relatively better due mainly to their younger population and larger agricultural sector.