University of California Institute of Transportation Studies

Critical nodes in transportation networks, such as major transit tunnels and interchange stations, are vital for maintaining system functionality following a disruptive event such as a large earthquake. This project focuses on evaluating the seismic resilience of BART’s Berkeley Hills Tunnel that intersects the Hayward Fault, one of California's most active seismic zones. The Hayward Fault poses a significant risk, with the potential for a magnitude 7+ earthquake that could severely impact the tunnel, potentially disrupting BART service and affecting the broader transit network. This study employs the latest fault displacement hazard data and models to estimate the probability of fault rupture displacements and assesses the resulting damage. It then evaluates the likelihood of service interruptions caused by potential Hayward Fault events. Theresults suggest that the tunnels may experience minor to significant damage depending on the amplitude of the faultdisplacement, which can lead to repair times ranging from a few weeks to over a year. The findings highlight the importance of improving tunnel resilience to minimize service disruptions and ensure efficient recovery following major earthquakes.