National Center for Sustainable Transportation

The Covid-19 pandemic significantly impacted transit ridership across Canada. As the pandemic begins to subside, understanding the factors that influence peoples’ decisions to use transit (or not) is crucial for the recovery and long-term sustainability of public transit. Using data from the third wave of the Public Transit and Covid-19 survey in Canada, this study evaluates who returned to pre-pandemic transit use, the factors influencing the decision to ride transit, and peoples’ intentions for future transit use. The authors find that most transit riders perceive that the pandemic is over but its effects are here to stay, though they are split about whether the pandemic still affects their transit use. While some transit riders have gradually returned to pre-pandemic transit levels, a relatively small share of those who have not yet fully returned intend to and a significant proportion do not intend to fully return. About half of transit riders will return to transit at a lower usage level than before the pandemic, while about 10% do not intend to return at all. The results indicate that in the “new normal”, transit use will remain below pre-pandemic levels for those who rode transit before the pandemic. Factors such as car access are significantly related to the extent to which people have returned to transit, although this may be reflecting a shift away from transit rather than causing the shift. Factors such as easy access to transit stops, service frequency, and proximity to home and job locations influence current transit use.

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