UCLA

Most intergenerational social mobility studies are based upon retrospective data, in which samples of individuals report socioeconomic information about their parents. Such an approach suffers from a retrospective reporting bias, because early generations can be recalled only if they have offspring, and those with more offspring are more likely to be recalled. This thesis discusses the conceptual and practical advantages of using an alternative, prospective approach, which examines intergenerational mobility by following a sample of respondents and their progeny. This prospective approach is especially useful for multigenerational mobility analysis that is rising in the field of mobility studies in recent years. We also propose an adjustment method that corrects the retrospective reporting bias in retrospective data, and thus permits them to be used in prospective intergenerational analyses that incorporate both demographic and mobility effects. We illustrate the adjustment method using both two-generation and multigenerational models based on simulated data and empirical data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. The results suggest that our adjustment retrospective method removes more than 95% of the bias in the prospective analysis based on retrospective data.