Department of Statistics, UCLA

The goal of the research was to develop a short screener that deputies could use in the field to help forecast domestic violence incidents in particular households. Based on information collected from over 600 households, forecasting procedures were developed. They are based on a few simple questions that can be asked at the scene, selected from a larger set of over thirty questions. From these questions alone, correct forecasts of future calls for service can be made about 60% of the time. Future calls involving domestic violence misdemeanors and felonies can be correctly forecast about 50% of the time. The 50% figure is especially important because such calls require a law enforcement response and yet are a relatively small fraction of all domestic violence calls for service.