UC Berkeley

Growing the bioeconomy requires products and pathways that are cost-competitive. Technoeconomic analyses (TEAs) aim to predict the long-term economic viability and often use what are known as n^th plant cost and performance parameters. However, as TEA is more widely adopted to inform everything from early-stage research to company and investor decision-making, the n^th plant approach is inadequate and risks being misused to inform the early stages of scale-up. Some methods exist for conducting first-of-a-kind/pioneer plant cost analyses, but these receive less attention and have not been critically evaluated. This article explores TEA methods for early-stage scale-up, critically evaluates their applicability to biofuels and bioproducts, and recommends strategies for producing TEA results better suited to guiding prioritization and successful scale-up of bioprocesses.