Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society

People often think about counterfactual possibilities to an event and imagine how it could have been otherwise. The study of how this occurs is central to many areas of cognitive science, including decision making, social cognition, and causal judgment; however, modeling the memory processes at play in naturalistic counterfactual retrieval has been difficult. We use established memory models to evaluate and compare multiple mechanisms that could be involved in counterfactual retrieval. Our models are able to capture nuanced dynamics of retrieval (e.g. how retrieved counterfactuals cue subsequent counterfactuals), and can predict the effects of retrieval on evaluations and decisions. In doing so, we show how existing theories of counterfactual thinking can be combined with quantitative models of memory search to provide new insights about the formation and consequences of counterfactual thought.