UCSF

BACKGROUND:Some studies have shown that body weight variability is a risk factor for cardiovascular events, but this has not been studied in subjects with diabetes mellitus. METHODS AND RESULTS:We measured intraindividual variations in body weight from baseline and follow-up visits in 6408 subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus from 3 clinical trials. The primary end point, any coronary event, was a composite of coronary heart disease death, myocardial infarction, resuscitated cardiac arrest, coronary revascularization, and unstable or new-onset angina. After adjustment for risk factors, baseline lipid levels, mean body weight, and weight change, each increase of 1 SD in body weight variability, measured as average successive variability and used as a time-dependent covariate, was associated with an increase in the risk of any coronary event (hazard ratio, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.01-1.14; P=0.017), major coronary event (hazard ratio, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.04-1.20; P=0.002), any cardiovascular event (hazard ratio, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.03-1.14; P=0.0015), and death (hazard ratio, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.10-1.22; P<0.0001). Among patients in the quintile with the highest variation in body weight compared with the lowest, the risk of any coronary event was 59% higher; the risk of a major coronary event, 82% higher; any cardiovascular event, 75% higher; death, 82% higher; myocardial infarction, 99% higher; and stroke, 92% higher in adjusted models. The results were consistent in a number of sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS:Among subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus, fluctuation in body weight was associated with higher mortality and a higher rate of cardiovascular events, independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION:URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00327691 and NCT00327418.