Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society

The mental model theory postulates that reasoners build models of the situations described in premises. A conclusion is possible if it occurs in at least one model; it is probable if occurs in most models; and it is necessary if it occurs in all models. The theory also postulates that reasoners represent as much information as possible in implicit models. Experiment 1 showed that, as predicted, conclusions about possible situations tend to correspond to explicit models rather than to implicit models. Experiment 2 yielded a discovery: there are illusory inferences with conclusions that seem plausible but that are in reality gross errors. In such cases, as the model theory predicts, subjects judge as the more probable of two events one that is impossible. For example, given that only one of the following two assertions is true: There is a king or an ace in the hand, or both. There is a queen or an ace in the hand, or both. subjects judge that the ace is more likely to be in the hand than the king. In fact, it is impossible for an ace to be in the hand.