California Policy Lab

Rising interest rates can create "interest rate lock" for homeowners with fixed rate mortgages, who can hold onto their low rates as long as they stay in their homes but would have to take on new mortgages with higher rates if they moved. We show mobility rates fell in 2022-2023 for homeowners with mortgages, as market rates rose. There were no such declines for homeowners without mortgages or for renters, and the decline is not explained by changes in home values. Overall, our estimates imply that rising interest rates reduced mobility by 15% for households with mortgages.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants MRP-19-600774 and M21PR3278

In Fall 2021, The People Lab (TPL) and the California Policy Lab (CPL) partnered with the California Department of Social Services (CDSS) and Code for America (CfA) to conduct and evaluate a state-wide outreach effort aimed at delivering stimulus payments to low-income Californians. The outreach campaign reached nearly 430,000 low-income households in California. These households were enrolled in either the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, or CalFresh) or the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF, or CalWORKs), and were identified as having at least one likely “non-filer” — someone who had not filed or been claimed on a state tax return in 2018 and/or 2019 and who was therefore likely to miss out on tax-based benefits payments. In a randomized evaluation, we tested the impact of informational outreach delivered via recorded voice message or email on the initiation and submission of returns among likely non-filers through the simplified filing tool created by CfA: GetCTC.org. We also evaluated the effect of emphasizing the availability of live assistance, as well as the impact of different message language.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants MRP-19-600774 and M21PR3278

Key Points

Question: Did emergency department (ED) use decrease among the top 5% of high users of health care and social services in San Francisco County during the COVID-19 pandemic?

Findings: In this cohort study of 8967 individuals, the rate of ED visits decreased by approximately 25% during the pandemic compared with nonpandemic years.

Meaning: Factors associated with decreased ED encounters and health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic among previously high users are not clear and warrant further investigation.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants M21PR3278.

States have begun to pass legislation to provide automatic relief for eligible criminal records, potentially reducing the lifelong collateral consequences of criminal justice involvement. Yet numerous historical examples suggest that racially neutral policies can have profoundly disparate effects across racial groups. In the case of criminal record relief, racial equity in eligibility for a clean slate has not yet been examined. We find that in California, one in five people with convictions met criteria for full conviction relief under the state's automatic relief laws. Yet the share of Black Americans eligible for relief was lower than White Americans, reproducing racial disparities in criminal records. We identify two policy amendments that would reduce the share of Black men in California with convictions on their criminal records from 22% to 9%, thereby narrowing the difference compared to White men from 15 to seven percentage points. Put another way, an additional one in seven Black men currently has a conviction record, compared to their White counterparts. This would decline to an additional one in 14 if both hypothetical policy amendments were incorporated. We close with discussion of criminal history data quality limitations, which pose a second key challenge to equitable implementation of automatic criminal record relief reforms nationwide.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants MRP-19-600774 and M21PR3278.

A subset of undergraduate applicants to the University of California, Berkeley were invited to submit letters ofrecommendation as part of their applications. I use scraped text of the submitted letters, natural languageprocessing tools, and a within-subject experimental design wherein applications were read in parallel with andwithout their letters to understand the role that this qualitative information plays in admissions. I show thatletters written on behalf of underrepresented applicants were modestly distinctive. I also construct an index ofletter strength, measuring the predicted impact of the letter on the student’s application score. I show thatunderrepresented applicants tend to get weaker letters, but that readers pay less attention to letter strength forunderrepresented students. Overall, the inclusion of letters modestly improved application outcomes for theaverage underrepresented student.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants MRP-19-600774 and M21PR3278.

Key Points

Question: Was placement in a shelterin-place (SIP) hotel during the COVID-19 pandemic associated with health system utilization among people experiencing homelessness with a history of high use of acute health services?

Findings: In this cohort study of 686 high users of acute county services experiencing homelessness, those who received a SIP hotel placement had significantly fewer emergency department visits, hospital admissions, inpatient days, and psychiatric emergency department visits compared with matched controls without a placement.

Meaning: These findings suggest that provision of noncongregate shelter with supportive services in SIP hotels during the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with reduced use of acute health services among people with prior high use.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants MRP-19-600774 and M21PR3278

This study examines how the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic affected life expectancy in California and the relationship between census tract income and life expectancy relative to prepandemic years. In this retrospective analysis of 1, 988, 606 deaths in California during 2015 to 2021, life expectancy declined from 81.40 years in 2019 to 79.20 years in 2020 and 78.37 years in 2021. Life expectancy differences between the census tracts in the highest and lowest income percentiles increased from 11.52 years in 2019 to 14.67 years in 2020 and 15.51 years in 2021. This ecological study of deaths in the state of California demonstrated that life expectancy declines in 2020 increased in 2021 and that the life expectancy gap by income level increased during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic relative to the prepandemic period.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants MRP-19-600774 and M21PR3278.

The authors use de-identified data from California personal income tax returns to measure the frequency and nature of independent contracting and self-employment in California. They identify this work by the presence of a Schedule C on the tax return and/or the receipt of a Form 1099 information return. The authors estimate that 14.4% of California workers aged 18 to 64 in tax year 2016 had some independent contracting or self-employment income and approximately half of this subgroup also had earnings from traditional W-2 jobs during the year. Only a small share (1.4%) of workers had earnings from online labor platforms (often called gig work). Workers with low earnings were significantly more likely to earn independent contracting or self-employment income and to rely primarily or exclusively on that income. The article explores the characteristics of workers engaging in independent contracting and self-employment and their distribution across family type, geography, and industry.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants MRP-19-600774 and M21PR3278

This paper studies the effect of a restorative justice intervention targeted at youth ages 13 to 17 facing felony charges of medium severity (e.g., burglary, assault). Eligible youths were randomly assigned to participate in the Make-it-Right (MIR) restorative justice program or a control group where they faced standard criminal prosecution. We estimate the effects of MIR on the likelihood that a youth will be rearrested in the four years following randomization. Assignment to MIR reduces the probability of a rearrest within six months by 19 percentage points, a 44 percent reduction relative to the control group. Moreover, the reduction in recidivism persists even four years after randomization. Thus, our estimates show that restorative justice conferencing can reduce recidivism among youth charged with relatively serious offenses and can be an effective alternative to traditional criminal justice practices.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants MRP-19-600774 and M21PR3278

Most labor market policy in the United States is designed for long-term employment relationships. Self-employed workers, including independent contractors and on-demand platform (“gig”) workers, are excluded from labor market protections such as wage and hour laws, occupational safety and health regulations, unemployment insurance, and employer-provided health insurance and retirement programs. They are also poorly covered by our tax collection system, which relies heavily on employer reporting of worker earnings for enforcement. Growth in independent contracting could undermine labor market arrangements, with implications for regulation, tax collection, and worker wellbeing.

This paper uses California tax data to provide an alternative lens on many of the outstanding empirical questions about independent contracting. We use de-identified, individual-level data from California personal income tax returns for tax years 2012 through 2017 to measure the prevalence and nature of self-employment and independent contracting. We estimate that 14.4% of California workers aged 18-64 in tax year 2016 had some independent contracting income. Over half of independent contractors also had traditional jobs generating W-2s, and most of these received the bulk of their earnings from their traditional jobs. Workers with low earnings are significantly more likely to earn independent contracting income and to rely primarily or exclusively on that income. We explore the characteristics of independent contractors and their distribution across family type, geography, and industry.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants MRP-19-600774 and M21PR3278.