Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education

•The California Cancer Research Act (CCRC) is an initiative on the June 2012 California ballot that, if passed by the voters, will increase the tax on cigarettes by $1.00 per pack (with corresponding increases for other tobacco products) and allocate the money to reinvigorating the California Tobacco Control Program, cancer and other biomedical research, law enforcement to enforce sales to minors laws and ensure that the taxes are collected, administration.

•There will be a small increase in jobs and economic activity as funds are shifted from other activities into the tobacco control, cancer and other research and related activities specified by the CCRA.

•The combined effect of the price increase associated with the tax and the substantially reinvigorated tobacco control program the CCRA will create is projected to reduce tobacco consumption by an average of $1.0 billion per year for the first five years after the CCRA passes.

•Of this total reduction in pre-tax tobacco sales, $196 million will represent retail activity in California that is shifted to the general California economy and $804 million will represent money remains in the state economy rather than being exported to out-of-state tobacco manufacturers and farmers.

•There will be a small loss in jobs as a result of lower retail activity accompanied by a small increase in total economic activity due to the $196 million previously spent on tobacco products that remained in California shifting activities with higher economic multipliers. 

•The major change will be the fact that $804 million that previously left the California economy will remain in California, leading to corresponding increases in job creation and economic activity.

•Combining these two different effects of enacting the CCRA yields an estimate that enacting the CCRA will lead to a net increase of about 12,000 jobs and about $1.9 billion in total economic activity, mostly because of the CCRA’s effects on reducing smoking and other tobacco use.

The Coalition for a Healthy California is sponsoring a comprehensive statewide ballot initaitve to rasie the tobacco excise tax by $2.60 per pack of cigarettes in order to provide funding to qualified hospitals for emergency services, nursing education and health insurance to eligible children. This paper uses the best possible science to estimate the effect of a new tax on cigarette consumption, adult and youth smoking rates, tax revenues, and long term health outcomes. The additional tax would raise the average price of cigrettes to $6.55 per pack.

We explored the evolution from cigarette product attributes to psychosocial needs in advertising campaigns for low-tar cigarettes. Analysis of previously secret tobacco industry documents and print advertising images indicated that low-tar brands targeted smokers who were concerned about their health with advertising images intended to distract them from the health hazards of smoking. Advertising first emphasized product characteristics (filtration, low tar) that implied health benefits. Over time, advertising emphasis shifted to salient psychosocial needs of the target markets. A case study of Vantage in the USA and Canada showed that advertising presented images of intelligent, upward-striving people who had achieved personal success and intentionally excluded the act of smoking from the imagery, while minimal product information was provided.

This illustrates one strategy to appeal to concerned smokers by not describing the product itself (which may remind smokers of the problems associated with smoking) but instead using evocative imagery to distract smokers from these problems. Current advertising for potential reduced-exposure products (PREPs) emphasizes product characteristics, but these products have not delivered on the promise of a healthier alternative cigarette. Our results suggest that the tobacco control community should be on the alert for a shift in advertising focus for PREPs to the image of the user rather than the cigarette. Framework Convention on Tobacco Control-style advertising bans that prohibit all user imagery in tobacco advertising could preempt a psychosocial needs-based advertising strategy for PREPs and maintain public attention on the health hazards of smoking.

Abstract

Objectives. This paper describes the methodology for estimating the present value of lifetime earnings (PVLE) for the year 2000.

Methods. Estimation takes into account life expectancy by gender and age group, percent of people in the labor force or keeping house, current pattern of earnings at successive ages, an imputed value for household production, and the discount rate.

Results. At a discount rate of 3 percent, males and females aged 20-24 have the highest PVLE — $1,517,045 and $1,085,188 respectively. Lifetime earnings for men are higher than for women. Higher discount rates yield lower values at all ages.

Conclusions. The present value of lifetime earnings yields useful estimates of the valueof life. These estimates are conservative compared with other approaches.