This paper analyzes demographic changes that occurred between 1977 and

1996, in four socio-cultural contexts in the Soconusco Region of Chiapas, Mexico. It is

based on a socio-demographic random sample survey that compiled primary (1139

household groups) and secondary (population and agricultural census) information.

The results based on cohort analysis provide evidence for the existence of

various fertility trends among the different socio-cultural contexts. In average urban

settlements, fertility has remained low stable, and in rural indigenous settlements it has

also remained stable, but high. Only in rural mestizo and marginal urban communities

have there been overall and significant fertility declines. In marginal urban settlements,

in spite of showing a generalized fertility decline, adolescent fertility has increased.

These trends are closely related to the changes in schooling levels achieved by

females, particularly with secondary or higher education, as well as with modifications in

the age at first union. There has been a reduction in the proportion of women

completing secondary education in all of the socio-cultural contexts, which goes handin-

hand with the economic polarization of the region.

Based on models of impact evaluation, it is possible to conclude that due to the

characteristics of the Soconusco “with elevated macroeconomic development and deep

social polarization”, the State’s efforts must be primordially oriented to improving the lot

of the population, especially with regards to average education of women.

California Center for Population Research

Data Sets