A single determination of eGFR associates with subsequent mortality risk. Prior decline in eGFR indicates loss of kidney function, but the relationship to mortality risk is uncertain. We conducted an individual-level meta-analysis of the risk of mortality associated with antecedent eGFR slope, adjusting for established risk factors, including last eGFR, among 1.2 million subjects from 12 CKD and 22 other cohorts within the CKD Prognosis Consortium. Over a 3-year antecedent period, 12% of participants in the CKD cohorts and 11% in the other cohorts had an eGFR slope <-5 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year, whereas 7% and 4% had a slope >5 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year, respectively. Compared with a slope of 0 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year, a slope of -6 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year associated with adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality of 1.25 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.09 to 1.44) among CKD cohorts and 1.15 (95% CI, 1.01 to 1.31) among other cohorts during a follow-up of 3.2 years. A slope of +6 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year also associated with higher all-cause mortality risk, with adjusted hazard ratios of 1.58 (95% CI, 1.29 to 1.95) among CKD cohorts and 1.43 (95% CI, 1.11 to 1.84) among other cohorts. Results were similar for cardiovascular and noncardiovascular causes of death and stronger for longer antecedent periods (3 versus <3 years). We conclude that prior decline or rise in eGFR associates with an increased risk of mortality, independent of current eGFR.

Importance

The established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression end point of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a doubling of serum creatinine concentration (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of −57% or greater) is a late event.

Objective

To characterize the association of decline in estimated GFR with subsequent progression to ESRD with implications for using lesser declines in estimated GFR as potential alternative end points for CKD progression. Because most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, mortality risk also was investigated.

Data sources and study selection

Individual meta-analysis of 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine concentration over 1 to 3 years and outcome data.

Data extraction and synthesis

Transfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random-effects meta-analysis conducted between July 2012 and September 2013, with baseline estimated GFR values collected from 1975 through 2012.

Main outcomes and measures

End-stage renal disease (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percentage change in estimated GFR over 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders and first estimated GFR.

Results

The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of ESRD and mortality were higher with larger estimated GFR decline. Among participants with baseline estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95% CI, 22.3-46.3) for changes of −57% in estimated GFR and 5.4 (95% CI, 4.5-6.4) for changes of −30%. However, changes of −30% or greater (6.9% [95% CI, 6.4%-7.4%] of the entire consortium) were more common than changes of −57% (0.79% [95% CI, 0.52%-1.06%]). This association was strong and consistent across the length of the baseline period (1 to 3 years), baseline estimated GFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD (in patients with a baseline estimated GFR of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2) was 99% (95% CI, 95%-100%) for estimated GFR change of −57%, was 83% (95% CI, 71%-93%) for estimated GFR change of −40%, and was 64% (95% CI, 52%-77%) for estimated GFR change of −30% vs 18% (95% CI, 15%-22%) for estimated GFR change of 0%. Corresponding mortality risks were 77% (95% CI, 71%-82%), 60% (95% CI, 56%-63%), and 50% (95% CI, 47%-52%) vs 32% (95% CI, 31%-33%), showing a similar but weaker pattern.

Conclusions and relevance

Declines in estimated GFR smaller than a doubling of serum creatinine concentration occurred more commonly and were strongly and consistently associated with the risk of ESRD and mortality, supporting consideration of lesser declines in estimated GFR (such as a 30% reduction over 2 years) as an alternative end point for CKD progression.

Background

Diabetes mellitus and hypertension are risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI). Whether estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR) remain risk factors for AKI in the presence and absence of these conditions is uncertain.

Study design

Meta-analysis of cohort studies.

Setting & population

8 general-population (1,285,045 participants) and 5 chronic kidney disease (CKD; 79,519 participants) cohorts.

Selection criteria for studies

Cohorts participating in the CKD Prognosis Consortium.

Predictors

Diabetes and hypertension status, eGFR by the 2009 CKD Epidemiology Collaboration creatinine equation, urine ACR, and interactions.

Outcome

Hospitalization with AKI, using Cox proportional hazards models to estimate HRs of AKI and random-effects meta-analysis to pool results.

Results

During a mean follow-up of 4 years, there were 16,480 episodes of AKI in the general-population and 2,087 episodes in the CKD cohorts. Low eGFRs and high ACRs were associated with higher risks of AKI in individuals with or without diabetes and with or without hypertension. When compared to a common reference of eGFR of 80mL/min/1.73m(2) in nondiabetic patients, HRs for AKI were generally higher in diabetic patients at any level of eGFR. The same was true for diabetic patients at all levels of ACR compared with nondiabetic patients. The risk gradient for AKI with lower eGFRs was greater in those without diabetes than with diabetes, but similar with higher ACRs in those without versus with diabetes. Those with hypertension had a higher risk of AKI at eGFRs>60mL/min/1.73m(2) than those without hypertension. However, risk gradients for AKI with both lower eGFRs and higher ACRs were greater for those without than with hypertension.

Limitations

AKI identified by diagnostic code.

Conclusions

Lower eGFRs and higher ACRs are associated with higher risks of AKI among individuals with or without either diabetes or hypertension.

Background

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a serious global public health problem. We aimed to quantify the risk of AKI associated with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), albuminuria (albumin-creatinine ratio [ACR]), age, sex, and race (African American and white).

Study design

Collaborative meta-analysis.

Setting & population

8 general-population cohorts (1,285,049 participants) and 5 chronic kidney disease (CKD) cohorts (79,519 participants).

Selection criteria for studies

Available eGFR, ACR, and 50 or more AKI events.

Predictors

Age, sex, race, eGFR, urine ACR, and interactions.

Outcome

Hospitalized with or for AKI, using Cox proportional hazards models to estimate HRs of AKI and random-effects meta-analysis to pool results.

Results

16,480 (1.3%) general-population cohort participants had AKI over a mean follow-up of 4 years; 2,087 (2.6%) CKD participants had AKI over a mean follow-up of 1 year. Lower eGFR and higher ACR were strongly associated with AKI. Compared with eGFR of 80mL/min/1.73m(2), the adjusted HR of AKI at eGFR of 45mL/min/1.73m(2) was 3.35 (95% CI, 2.75-4.07). Compared with ACR of 5mg/g, the risk of AKI at ACR of 300mg/g was 2.73 (95% CI, 2.18-3.43). Older age was associated with higher risk of AKI, but this effect was attenuated with lower eGFR or higher ACR. Male sex was associated with higher risk of AKI, with a slight attenuation in lower eGFR but not in higher ACR. African Americans had higher AKI risk at higher levels of eGFR and most levels of ACR.

Limitations

Only 2 general-population cohorts could contribute to analyses by race; AKI identified by diagnostic code.

Conclusions

Reduced eGFR and increased ACR are consistent strong risk factors for AKI, whereas associations of AKI with age, sex, and race may be weaker in more advanced stages of CKD.

Elevated blood pressure is a common, heritable cause of cardiovascular disease worldwide. To date, identification of common genetic variants influencing blood pressure has proven challenging. We tested 2.5 million genotyped and imputed SNPs for association with systolic and diastolic blood pressure in 34,433 subjects of European ancestry from the Global BPgen consortium and followed up findings with direct genotyping (N ≤ 71,225 European ancestry, N ≤ 12,889 Indian Asian ancestry) and in silico comparison (CHARGE consortium, N = 29,136). We identified association between systolic or diastolic blood pressure and common variants in eight regions near the CYP17A1 (P = 7 × 10(-24)), CYP1A2 (P = 1 × 10(-23)), FGF5 (P = 1 × 10(-21)), SH2B3 (P = 3 × 10(-18)), MTHFR (P = 2 × 10(-13)), c10orf107 (P = 1 × 10(-9)), ZNF652 (P = 5 × 10(-9)) and PLCD3 (P = 1 × 10(-8)) genes. All variants associated with continuous blood pressure were associated with dichotomous hypertension. These associations between common variants and blood pressure and hypertension offer mechanistic insights into the regulation of blood pressure and may point to novel targets for interventions to prevent cardiovascular disease.

Blood pressure (BP) is a heritable, quantitative trait with intraindividual variability and susceptibility to measurement error. Genetic studies of BP generally use single-visit measurements and thus cannot remove variability occurring over months or years. We leveraged the idea that averaging BP measured across time would improve phenotypic accuracy and thereby increase statistical power to detect genetic associations. We studied systolic BP (SBP), diastolic BP (DBP), mean arterial pressure (MAP), and pulse pressure (PP) averaged over multiple years in 46,629 individuals of European ancestry. We identified 39 trait-variant associations across 19 independent loci (p < 5 × 10(-8)); five associations (in four loci) uniquely identified by our LTA analyses included those of SBP and MAP at 2p23 (rs1275988, near KCNK3), DBP at 2q11.2 (rs7599598, in FER1L5), and PP at 6p21 (rs10948071, near CRIP3) and 7p13 (rs2949837, near IGFBP3). Replication analyses conducted in cohorts with single-visit BP data showed positive replication of associations and a nominal association (p < 0.05). We estimated a 20% gain in statistical power with long-term average (LTA) as compared to single-visit BP association studies. Using LTA analysis, we identified genetic loci influencing BP. LTA might be one way of increasing the power of genetic associations for continuous traits in extant samples for other phenotypes that are measured serially over time.