Health care among forcibly displaced persons is frequently driven by siloed approaches. Aspects of the built environment, social factors, and the bidirectional relationship between the changing ecosystem and residents are often ignored in health policy design and implementation. While recognizing factors that create a preference for siloed approaches and appreciating the work of humanitarian agencies, we argue for a new data-driven and holistic approach to understand the health of the forcibly displaced. It should be rooted in the realities of the emergence of new diseases, dynamic demographics, and degrading environments around the displaced communities. Such an approach envisions refugee and internally displaced camps as dynamic, complex ecosystems that alter, and are altered by, spatial and temporal factors. At the root of this approach is the necessity to work across disciplines, to think holistically, to go beyond treating single ailments, and to develop ethical approaches that provide dignity to those who are forcibly displaced.

Background

Yemen continues to endure cholera outbreaks during ongoing conflict and destructive environmental events. Air raids have been used throughout the conflict to target military and civilian infrastructure. We aimed to assess the association between air raids and cholera incidence while taking into account geographical, environmental, economic, and demographic factors that drive outbreaks.

Methods

In this ecological modelling study, we used data from Sept 12, 2016, to Dec 29, 2019, for the number of air raids, vegetation coverage, surface water, precipitation, temperature, economic variables, and cholera case and population data to model the association between conflict and the weekly incidence of cholera (per 100 000 people) in Yemen. Data were transformed into weekly intervals and governorates were categorised according to air raid severity (the number of raids in the previous 3 months). We used a negative binomial generalised additive model that accounted for geographical location and environmental, temporal, economic, and demographic variables to estimate incidence rate ratios for the association between air raid severity and cases of cholera.

Findings

During the study period, 2 107 912 cases of cholera were reported in Yemen, and a minimum of 11 366 air raids were recorded. After controlling for relevant factors, compared with no air raids, all other levels of air raid severity were significantly associated with cholera incidence. The largest effect was noted in governorates with severe air raid levels (ie, ≥76 during the previous 3 months), which had an incidence rate ratio of 2·06 (95% CI 1·59-2·69; p<0·0001) for cholera compared with governorates with no air raids in the previous 3 months. Economic factors were also significantly associated with increased cholera incidence.

Interpretation

Air raids were significantly associated with the burden of cholera in Yemen, even after controlling for other relevant factors. Quantification of this relationship further shows that the cholera outbreak is largely a result of human action rather than a natural occurrence, and demonstrates the conflict's devastating effects on health. Our findings highlight the need for ceasefire and peacebuilding efforts, as well as infrastructure and economic restoration, to reduce Yemen's cholera burden.

Funding

None.

Translation

For the Arabic translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Acinetobacter baumannii has become increasingly resistant to leading antimicrobial agents since the 1970s. Increased resistance appears linked to armed conflicts, notably since widespread media stories amplified clinical reports in the wake of the American invasion of Iraq in 2003. Antimicrobial resistance is usually assumed to arise through selection pressure exerted by antimicrobial treatment, particularly where treatment is inadequate, as in the case of low dosing, substandard antimicrobial agents, or shortened treatment course. Recently attention has focused on an emerging pathogen, multi-drug resistant A. baumannii (MDRAb). MDRAb gained media attention after being identified in American soldiers returning from Iraq and treated in US military facilities, where it was termed "Iraqibacter." However, MDRAb is strongly associated in the literature with war injuries that are heavily contaminated by both environmental debris and shrapnel from weapons. Both may harbor substantial amounts of toxic heavy metals. Interestingly, heavy metals are known to also select for antimicrobial resistance. In this review we highlight the potential causes of antimicrobial resistance by heavy metals, with a focus on its emergence in A. baumanni in war zones.