Background

Identifying prediagnostic neurodegenerative disease is a critical issue in neurodegenerative disease research, and Alzheimer's disease (AD) in particular, to identify populations suitable for preventive and early disease-modifying trials. Evidence from genetic and other studies suggests the neurodegeneration of Alzheimer's disease measured by brain atrophy starts many years before diagnosis, but it is unclear whether these changes can be used to reliably detect prediagnostic sporadic disease.

Methods

We trained a Bayesian machine learning neural network model to generate a neuroimaging phenotype and AD score representing the probability of AD using structural MRI data in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) Cohort (cut-off 0.5, AUC 0.92, PPV 0.90, NPV 0.93). We go on to validate the model in an independent real-world dataset of the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Centre (AUC 0.74, PPV 0.65, NPV 0.80) and demonstrate the correlation of the AD-score with cognitive scores in those with an AD-score above 0.5. We then apply the model to a healthy population in the UK Biobank study to identify a cohort at risk for Alzheimer's disease.

Results

We show that the cohort with a neuroimaging Alzheimer's phenotype has a cognitive profile in keeping with Alzheimer's disease, with strong evidence for poorer fluid intelligence, and some evidence of poorer numeric memory, reaction time, working memory, and prospective memory. We found some evidence in the AD-score positive cohort for modifiable risk factors of hypertension and smoking.

Conclusions

This approach demonstrates the feasibility of using AI methods to identify a potentially prediagnostic population at high risk for developing sporadic Alzheimer's disease.

There is a pressing need to understand the factors that predict prognosis in progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) and corticobasal syndrome (CBS), with high heterogeneity over the poor average survival. We test the hypothesis that the magnitude and distribution of connectivity changes in PSP and CBS predict the rate of progression and survival time, using datasets from the Cambridge Centre for Parkinson-plus and the UK National PSP Research Network (PROSPECT-MR). Resting-state functional MRI images were available from 146 participants with PSP, 82 participants with CBS, and 90 healthy controls. Large-scale networks were identified through independent component analyses, with correlations taken between component time series. Independent component analysis was also used to select between-network connectivity components to compare with baseline clinical severity, longitudinal rate of change in severity, and survival. Transdiagnostic survival predictors were identified using partial least squares regression for Cox models, with connectivity compared to patients demographics, structural imaging, and clinical scores using five-fold cross-validation. In PSP and CBS, between-network connectivity components were identified that differed from controls, were associated with disease severity, and were related to survival and rate of change in clinical severity. A transdiagnostic component predicted survival beyond demographic and motion metrics but with lower accuracy than an optimal model that included the clinical and structural imaging measures. Cortical atrophy enhanced the connectivity changes that were most predictive of survival. Between-network connectivity is associated with variability in prognosis in PSP and CBS but does not improve predictive accuracy beyond clinical and structural imaging metrics.

INTRODUCTION: We tested whether changes in functional networks predict cognitive decline and conversion from the presymptomatic prodrome to symptomatic disease in familial frontotemporal dementia (FTD). METHODS: For hypothesis generation, 36 participants with behavioral variant FTD (bvFTD) and 34 controls were recruited from one site. For hypothesis testing, we studied 198 symptomatic FTD mutation carriers, 341 presymptomatic mutation carriers, and 329 family members without mutations. We compared functional network dynamics between groups, with clinical severity and with longitudinal clinical progression. RESULTS: We identified a characteristic pattern of dynamic network changes in FTD, which correlated with neuropsychological impairment. Among presymptomatic mutation carriers, this pattern of network dynamics was found to a greater extent in those who subsequently converted to the symptomatic phase. Baseline network dynamic changes predicted future cognitive decline in symptomatic participants and older presymptomatic participants. DISCUSSION: Dynamic network abnormalities in FTD predict cognitive decline and symptomatic conversion. HIGHLIGHTS: We investigated brain network predictors of dementia symptom onset Frontotemporal dementia results in characteristic dynamic network patterns Alterations in network dynamics are associated with neuropsychological impairment Network dynamic changes predict symptomatic conversion in presymptomatic carriers Network dynamic changes are associated with longitudinal cognitive decline.