Pseudo-nitzschia species are one of the leading causes of harmful algal blooms (HABs) along the western coast of the United States. Approximately half of known Pseudo-nitzschia strains can produce domoic acid (DA), a neurotoxin that can negatively impact wildlife and fisheries and put human life at risk through amnesic shellfish poisoning. Production and accumulation of DA, a secondary metabolite synthesized during periods of low primary metabolism, is triggered by environmental stressors such as nutrient limitation. To quantify and estimate the feedbacks between DA production and environmental conditions, we designed a simple mechanistic model of Pseudo-nitzschia and domoic acid dynamics, which we validate against batch and chemostat experiments. Our results suggest that, as nutrients other than nitrogen (i.e., silicon, phosphorus, and potentially iron) become limiting, DA production increases. Under Si limitation, we found an approximate doubling in DA production relative to N limitation. Additionally, our model indicates a positive relationship between light and DA production. These results support the idea that the relationship with nutrient limitation and light is based on direct impacts on Pseudo-nitzschia biosynthesis and biomass accumulation. Because it can easily be embedded within existing coupled physical-ecosystem models, our model represents a step forward toward modeling the occurrence of Pseudo-nitzschia HABs and DA across the U.S. West Coast.

Climate change is increasing drought severity worldwide. Ocean discharges of municipal wastewater are a target for potable water recycling. Potable water recycling would reduce wastewater volume; however, the effect on mass nitrogen loading is dependent on treatment. In cases where nitrogen mass loading is not altered or altered minimally, this practice has the potential to influence spatial patterns in coastal eutrophication. We apply a physical-biogeochemical numerical ocean model to understand the influence of nitrogen management and potable wastewater recycling on net primary productivity (NPP), pH, and oxygen. We model several theoretical management scenarios by combining dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) reductions from 50 to 85% and recycling from 0 to 90%, applied to 19 generalized wastewater outfalls in the Southern California Bight. Under no recycling, NPP, acidification, and oxygen loss decline with DIN reductions, which simulated habitat volume expansion for pelagic calcifiers and aerobic taxa. Recycling scenarios under intermediate DIN reduction show patchier areas of pH and oxygen loss with steeper vertical declines relative to a no recycling scenario. These patches are diminished under 85% DIN reduction across all recycling levels, suggesting nitrogen management lowers eutrophication risk even with concentrated discharges. These findings represent a novel application of ocean numerical models to investigate the regional effects of idealized outfall management on eutrophication. Additional work is needed to investigate more realistic outfall-specific water recycling and nutrient management scenarios and to contextualize the benefit of these management actions, given accelerating acidification and hypoxia from climate change.

The Southern California Bight (SCB) is an upwelling-dominated, open embayment on the U.S. West Coast and receives discharges of anthropogenically-enhanced freshwater, nutrients, carbon, and other materials. These inputs include direct point sources discharged from wastewater treatment (WWT) plants via ocean outfalls and point, non-point, and natural sources discharged via coastal rivers. We assembled a daily time series over 1971-2017 of discharges from large WWT plants ≥ 50 million gallon per day (MGD) and 1997-2017 from small WWT plants and coastal rivers. Constituents include nitrogen, phosphorus, organic carbon, alkalinity, iron, and silica. Data from research studies, several government and non-government agency databases containing discharge monitoring reports, river flow gauges, and other collateral information were compiled to produce this dataset. Predictive models and expert analysis addressed unmonitored sources and data gaps. The time series of terrestrial discharge and fluxes are provided with location of coastal discharge point or tributary. The data are deposited in a repository found in Sutula et al. [1].

A key control on the magnitude of coastal eutrophication is the degree to which currents quickly transport nitrogen derived from human sources away from the coast to the open ocean before eutrophication develops. In the Southern California Bight (SCB), an upwelling-dominated eastern boundary current ecosystem, anthropogenic nitrogen inputs increase algal productivity and cause subsurface acidification and oxygen (O 2 ) loss along the coast. However, the extent of anthropogenic influence on eutrophication beyond the coastal band, and the physical transport mechanisms and biogeochemical processes responsible for these effects are still poorly understood. Here, we use a submesoscale-resolving numerical model to document the detailed biogeochemical mass balance of nitrogen, carbon and oxygen, their physical transport, and effects on offshore habitats. Despite management of terrestrial nutrients that has occurred in the region over the last 20 years, coastal eutrophication continues to persist. The input of anthropogenic nutrients promote an increase in productivity, remineralization and respiration offshore, with recurrent O 2 loss and pH decline in a region located 30-90 km from the mainland. During 2013 to 2017, the spatially averaged 5-year loss rate across the Bight was 1.3 mmol m -3 O 2 , with some locations losing on average up to 14.2 mmol m -3 O 2 . The magnitude of loss is greater than model uncertainty assessed from data-model comparisons and from quantification of intrinsic variability. This phenomenon persists for 4 to 6 months of the year over an area of 278,40 km 2 ( ∼ 30% of SCB area). These recurrent features of acidification and oxygen loss are associated with cross-shore transport of nutrients by eddies and plankton biomass and their accumulation and retention within persistent eddies offshore within the SCB.

Climate warming is expected to intensify hypoxia in the California Current System (CCS), threatening its diverse and productive marine ecosystem. We analyzed past regional variability and future changes in the Metabolic Index (Φ), a species-specific measure of the environment's capacity to meet temperature-dependent organismal oxygen demand. Across the traits of diverse animals, Φ exhibits strong seasonal to interdecadal variations throughout the CCS, implying that resident species already experience large fluctuations in available aerobic habitat. For a key CCS species, northern anchovy, the long-term biogeographic distribution and decadal fluctuations in abundance are both highly coherent with aerobic habitat volume. Ocean warming and oxygen loss by 2100 are projected to decrease Φ below critical levels in 30 to 50% of anchovies' present range, including complete loss of aerobic habitat-and thus likely extirpation-from the southern CCS. Aerobic habitat loss will vary widely across the traits of CCS taxa, disrupting ecological interactions throughout the region.

Toxin producing cyanobacterial blooms have increased globally in recent decades in both frequency and intensity. Despite the recognition of this growing risk, the extent and magnitude of cyanobacterial blooms and cyanotoxin prevalence is poorly characterized in the heavily populated region of southern California. Recent assessments of lentic waterbodies (depressional wetlands, lakes, reservoirs and coastal lagoons) determined the prevalence of microcystins and, in some cases, additional cyanotoxins. Microcystins were present in all waterbody types surveyed although toxin concentrations were generally low across most habitats, as only a small number of sites exceeded California's recreational health thresholds for acute toxicity. Results from passive samplers (Solid Phase Adsorption Toxin Tracking (SPATT)) indicated microcystins were prevalent throughout lentic waterbodies and that traditional discrete samples underestimated the presence of microcystins. Multiple cyanotoxins were detected simultaneously in some systems, indicating multiple stressors, the risk of which is uncertain since health thresholds are based on exposures to single toxins. Anatoxin-a was detected for the first time from lakes in southern California. The persistence of detectable microcystins across years and seasons indicates a low-level, chronic risk through both direct and indirect exposure. The influence of toxic cyanobacterial blooms is a more complex stressor than presently recognized and should be included in water quality monitoring programs.

Pseudo-nitzschia species with the ability to produce the neurotoxin domoic acid (DA) are the main cause of harmful algal blooms (HABs) along the U.S. West Coast, with major impacts on ecosystems, fisheries, and human health. While most Pseudo-nitzschia (PN) HAB studies to date have focused on their characteristics at specific sites, few cross-regional comparisons exist, and mechanistic understanding of large-scale HAB drivers remains incomplete. To close these gaps, we compiled a nearly 20-year time series of in situ particulate DA and environmental observations to characterize similarities and differences in PN HAB drivers along the California coast. We focus on three DA hotspots with the greatest data density: Monterey Bay, the Santa Barbara Channel, and the San Pedro Channel. Coastwise, DA outbreaks are strongly correlated with upwelling, chlorophyll-a, and silicic acid limitation relative to other nutrients. Clear differences also exist across the three regions, with contrasting responses to climate regimes across a north to south gradient. In Monterey Bay, PN HAB frequency and intensity increase under relatively nutrient-poor conditions during anomalously low upwelling intensities. In contrast, in the Santa Barbara and San Pedro Channels, PN HABs are favored under cold, nitrogen-rich conditions during more intense upwelling. These emerging patterns provide insights on ecological drivers of PN HABs that are consistent across regions and support the development of predictive capabilities for DA outbreaks along the California coast and beyond.

Assessing the vulnerability of marine invertebrates to ocean acidification (OA) requires an understanding of critical thresholds at which developmental, physiological, and behavioral traits are affected. To identify relevant thresholds for echinoderms, we undertook a three-step data synthesis, focused on California Current Ecosystem (CCE) species. First, literature characterizing echinoderm responses to OA was compiled, creating a dataset comprised of >12,000 datapoints from 41 studies. Analysis of this data set demonstrated responses related to physiology, behavior, growth and development, and increased mortality in the larval and adult stages to low pH exposure. Second, statistical analyses were conducted on selected pathways to identify OA thresholds specific to duration, taxa, and depth-related life stage. Exposure to reduced pH led to impaired responses across a range of physiology, behavior, growth and development, and mortality endpoints for both larval and adult stages. Third, through discussions and synthesis, the expert panel identified a set of eight duration-dependent, life stage, and habitat-dependent pH thresholds and assigned each a confidence score based on quantity and agreement of evidence. The thresholds for these effects ranged within pH from 7.20 to 7.74 and duration from 7 to 30 days, all of which were characterized with either medium or low confidence. These thresholds yielded a risk range from early warning to lethal impacts, providing the foundation for consistent interpretation of OA monitoring data or numerical ocean model simulations to support climate change marine vulnerability assessments and evaluation of ocean management strategies. As a demonstration, two echinoderm thresholds were applied to simulations of a CCE numerical model to visualize the effects of current state of pH conditions on potential habitat.

Assessing decapod sensitivity to regional-scale ocean acidification (OA) conditions is limited because of a fragmented understanding of the thresholds at which they exhibit biological response. To address this need, we undertook a three-step data synthesis: first, we compiled a dataset composed of 27,000 datapoints from 55 studies of decapod responses to OA. Second, we used statistical threshold analyses to identify OA thresholds using pH as a proxy for 13 response pathways from physiology to behavior, growth, development and survival. Third, we worked with the panel of experts to review these thresholds, considering the contributing datasets based on quality of the study, and assign a final thresholds and associated confidence scores based on quality and consistency of findings among studies. The duration-dependent thresholds were within a pH range from 7.40 to 7.80, ranging from behavioral and physiological responses to mortality, with many of the thresholds being assigned medium-to-high confidence. Organism sensitivity increased with the duration of exposure but was not linked to a specific life-stage. The thresholds that emerge from our analyses provide the foundation for consistent interpretation of OA monitoring data or numerical ocean model simulations to support climate change marine vulnerability assessments and evaluation of ocean management strategies.

Global change is leading to warming, acidification, and oxygen loss in the ocean. In the Southern California Bight, an eastern boundary upwelling system, these stressors are exacerbated by the localized discharge of anthropogenically enhanced nutrients from a coastal population of 23 million people. Here, we use simulations with a high-resolution, physical-biogeochemical model to quantify the link between terrestrial and atmospheric nutrients, organic matter, and carbon inputs and biogeochemical change in the coastal waters of the Southern California Bight. The model is forced by large-scale climatic drivers and a reconstruction of local inputs via rivers, wastewater outfalls, and atmospheric deposition; it captures the fine scales of ocean circulation along the shelf; and it is validated against a large collection of physical and biogeochemical observations. Local land-based and atmospheric inputs, enhanced by anthropogenic sources, drive a 79% increase in phytoplankton biomass, a 23% increase in primary production, and a nearly 44% increase in subsurface respiration rates along the coast in summer, reshaping the biogeochemistry of the Southern California Bight. Seasonal reductions in subsurface oxygen, pH, and aragonite saturation state, by up to 50 mmol m-3, 0.09, and 0.47, respectively, rival or exceed the global open-ocean oxygen loss and acidification since the preindustrial period. The biological effects of these changes on local fisheries, proliferation of harmful algal blooms, water clarity, and submerged aquatic vegetation have yet to be fully explored.