Understanding recent population trends is critical to quantifying species vulnerability and implementing effective management strategies. To evaluate the accuracy of genomic methods for quantifying recent declines (beginning <120 generations ago), we simulated genomic data using forward-time methods (SLiM) coupled with coalescent simulations (msprime) under a number of demographic scenarios. We evaluated both site frequency spectrum (SFS)-based methods (momi2, Stairway Plot) and methods that employ linkage disequilibrium information (NeEstimator, GONE) with a range of sampling schemes (contemporary-only samples, sampling two time points, and serial sampling) and data types (RAD-like data and whole-genome sequencing). GONE and momi2 performed best overall, with >80% power to detect severe declines with large sample sizes. Two-sample and serial sampling schemes could accurately reconstruct changes in population size, and serial sampling was particularly valuable for making accurate inferences when genotyping errors or minor allele frequency cutoffs distort the SFS or under model mis-specification. However, sampling only contemporary individuals provided reliable inferences about contemporary size and size change using either site frequency or linkage-based methods, especially when large sample sizes or whole genomes from contemporary populations were available. These findings provide a guide for researchers designing genomics studies to evaluate recent demographic declines.

Environmental change can expose populations to unfamiliar stressors, and maladaptive responses to those stressors may result in population declines or extirpation. Although gene flow is classically viewed as a cause of maladaptation, small and isolated populations experiencing high levels of drift and little gene flow may be constrained in their evolutionary response to environmental change. We provide a case study using the model Trinidadian guppy system that illustrates the importance of considering gene flow and genetic drift when predicting (mal)adaptive response to acute stress. We compared population genomic patterns and acute stress responses of inbred guppy populations from headwater streams either with or without a recent history of gene flow from a more diverse mainstem population. Compared to no-gene flow analogues, we found that populations with recent gene flow showed higher genomic variation and increased stress tolerance-but only when exposed to a stress familiar to the mainstem population (heat shock). All headwater populations showed similar responses to a familiar stress in headwater environments (starvation) regardless of gene flow history, whereas exposure to an entirely unfamiliar stress (copper sulfate) showed population-level variation unrelated to environment or recent evolutionary history. Our results suggest that (mal)adaptive responses to acutely stressful environments are determined in part by recent evolutionary history and in part by previous exposure. In some cases, gene flow may provide the variation needed to persist, and eventually adapt, in the face of novel stress.

Adaptation to environmental change requires that populations harbor the necessary genetic variation to respond to selection. However, dispersal-limited species with fragmented populations and reduced genetic diversity may lack this variation and are at an increased risk of local extinction. In freshwater fish species, environmental change in the form of increased stream temperatures places many cold-water species at-risk. We present a study of rainbow darters (Etheostoma caeruleum) in which we evaluated the importance of genetic variation on adaptive potential and determined responses to extreme thermal stress. We compared fine-scale patterns of morphological and thermal tolerance differentiation across eight sites, including a unique lake habitat. We also inferred contemporary population structure using genomic data and characterized the relationship between individual genetic diversity and stress tolerance. We found site-specific variation in thermal tolerance that generally matched local conditions and morphological differences associated with lake-stream divergence. We detected patterns of population structure on a highly local spatial scale that could not be explained by isolation by distance or stream connectivity. Finally, we showed that individual thermal tolerance was positively correlated with genetic variation, suggesting that sites with increased genetic diversity may be better at tolerating novel stress. Our results highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation in understanding population vulnerability and stress response.

Populations can adapt to novel selection pressures through dramatic frequency changes in a few genes of large effect or subtle shifts in many genes of small effect. The latter (polygenic adaptation) is expected to be the primary mode of evolution for many life-history traits but tends to be more difficult to detect than changes in genes of large effect. Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) were subjected to intense fishing pressure over the twentieth century, leading to abundance crashes and a phenotypic shift toward earlier maturation across many populations. Here, we use spatially replicated temporal genomic data to test for a shared polygenic adaptive response to fishing using methods previously applied to evolve-and-resequence experiments. Cod populations on either side of the Atlantic show covariance in allele frequency change across the genome that are characteristic of recent polygenic adaptation. Using simulations, we demonstrate that the degree of covariance in allele frequency change observed in cod is unlikely to be explained by neutral processes or background selection. As human pressures on wild populations continue to increase, understanding and attributing modes of adaptation using methods similar to those demonstrated here will be important in identifying the capacity for adaptive responses and evolutionary rescue. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Restoring connectivity via assisted migration is a useful but currently underused approach for maintaining genetic diversity and preventing extirpations of threatened species. The use of assisted migration as a conservation strategy may be limited by the difficulty of balancing the benefits of reconnecting populations (including reduced inbreeding depression and increased adaptive capacity) with the perceived risk of outbreeding depression, which requires comprehensive knowledge of the landscape of adaptive, neutral, deleterious, and structural variation across a species' range. Using a combination of reduced-representation and whole-genome sequencing, we characterized genomic diversity and differentiation for the Arkansas Darter (Etheostoma cragini) across its range in the Midwestern US. We found strong population structure and large differences in genetic diversity and effective population sizes across drainages. The strength of genetic isolation by river distance differed among drainages, with landscape type surrounding streams and impoundments also contributing to genetic isolation. Despite low effective population sizes in some populations, there was surprisingly little evidence for recent inbreeding (based on the absence of long runs of homozygosity) or for elevated levels of deleterious variation in smaller populations. Considering neutral, adaptive, deleterious, and structural variation allowed us to identify several potential recipient populations that may benefit from translocations and potential donor sites throughout the range. Planning translocation strategies intended for restored connectivity and possible genetic rescue at earlier stages in species decline will likely increase the probability of retaining genetic diversity and population persistence over the long term while minimizing risks associated with translocation.

BACKGROUND: Rapid anthropogenic climate change will require species to adapt to shifting environmental conditions, with successful adaptation dependent upon current patterns of genetic variation. While landscape genomic approaches allow for exploration of local adaptation in non-model systems, most landscape genomics studies of adaptive capacity are limited to exploratory identification of potentially important functional genes, often without a priori expectations as to the gene functions that may be most important for climate change responses. In this study, we integrated targeted sequencing of genes of known function and genotyping of single-nucleotide polymorphisms to examine spatial, environmental, and species-specific patterns of potential local adaptation in two co-occuring turtle species: the Blandings turtle (Emydoidea blandingii) and the snapping turtle (Chelydra serpentina). RESULTS: We documented divergent patterns of spatial clustering between neutral and putatively adaptive genetic variation in both species. Environmental associations varied among gene regions and between species, with stronger environmental associations detected for genes involved in stress response and for the more specialized Blandings turtle. Land cover appeared to be more important than climate in shaping spatial variation in functional genes, indicating that human landscape alterations may affect adaptive capacity important for climate change responses. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides evidence that responses to climate change will be contingent on species-specific adaptive capacity and past history of exposure to human land cover change.

Understanding the evolutionary consequences of anthropogenic change is imperative for estimating long-term species resilience. While contemporary genomic data can provide us with important insights into recent demographic histories, investigating past change using present genomic data alone has limitations. In comparison, temporal genomics studies, defined herein as those that incorporate time series genomic data, utilize museum collections and repeated field sampling to directly examine evolutionary change. As temporal genomics is applied to more systems, species and questions, best practices can be helpful guides to make the most efficient use of limited resources. Here, we conduct a systematic literature review to synthesize the effects of temporal genomics methodology on our ability to detect evolutionary changes. We focus on studies investigating recent change within the past 200 years, highlighting evolutionary processes that have occurred during the past two centuries of accelerated anthropogenic pressure. We first identify the most frequently studied taxa, systems, questions and drivers, before highlighting overlooked areas where further temporal genomic studies may be particularly enlightening. Then, we provide guidelines for future study and sample designs while identifying key considerations that may influence statistical and analytical power. Our aim is to provide recommendations to a broad array of researchers interested in using temporal genomics in their work.