Background: Molecular evolutionary studies of noncoding sequences rely on multiple alignments. Yet how multiple alignment accuracy varies across sequence types, tree topologies, divergences and tools, and further how this variation impacts specific inferences, remains unclear. Results: Here we develop a molecular evolution simulation platform, CisEvolver, with models of background noncoding and transcription factor binding site evolution, and use simulated alignments to systematically examine multiple alignment accuracy and its impact on two key molecular evolutionary inferences: transcription factor binding site conservation and divergence estimation. We find that the accuracy of multiple alignments is determined almost exclusively by the pairwise divergence distance of the two most diverged species and that additional species have a negligible influence on alignment accuracy. Conserved transcription factor binding sites align better than surrounding noncoding DNA yet are often found to be misaligned at relatively short divergence distances, such that studies of binding site gain and loss could easily be confounded by alignment error. Divergence estimates from multiple alignments tend to be overestimated at short divergence distances but reach a tool specific divergence at which they cease to increase, leading to underestimation at long divergences. Our most striking finding was that overall alignment accuracy, binding site alignment accuracy and divergence estimation accuracy vary greatly across branches in a tree and are most accurate for terminal branches connecting sister taxa and least accurate for internal branches connecting sub-alignments. Conclusions: Our results suggest that variation in alignment accuracy can lead to errors in molecular evolutionary inferences that could be construed as biological variation. These findings have implications for which species to choose for analyses, what kind of errors would be expected for a given set of species and how multiple alignment tools and phylogenetic inference methods might be improved to minimize or control for alignment errors.

The phylogenetic relationship of the now fully sequenced species Drosophila erecta and D. yakuba with respect to the D. melanogaster species complex has been a subject of controversy. All three possible groupings of the species have been reported in the past, though recent multi-gene studies suggest that D. erecta and D. yakuba are sister species. Using the whole genomes of each of these species as well as the four other fully sequenced species in the subgenus Sophophora, we set out to investigate the placement of D. erecta and D. yakuba in the D. melanogaster species group and to understand the cause of the past incongruence. Though we find that the phylogeny grouping D. erecta and D. yakuba together is the best supported, we also find widespread incongruence in nucleotide and amino acid substitutions, insertions and deletions, and gene trees. The time inferred to span the two key speciation events is short enough that under the coalescent model, the incongruence could be the result of incomplete lineage sorting. Consistent with the lineage-sorting hypothesis, substitutions supporting the same tree were spatially clustered. Support for the different trees was found to be linked to recombination such that adjacent genes support the same tree most often in regions of low recombination and substitutions supporting the same tree are most enriched roughly on the same scale as linkage disequilibrium, also consistent with lineage sorting. The incongruence was found to be statistically significant and robust to model and species choice. No systematic biases were found. We conclude that phylogenetic incongruence in the D. melanogaster species complex is the result, at least in part, of incomplete lineage sorting. Incomplete lineage sorting will likely cause phylogenetic incongruence in many comparative genomics datasets. Methods to infer the correct species tree, the history of every base in the genome, and comparative methods that control for and/or utilize this information will be valuable advancements for the field of comparative genomics.

The gain and loss of functional transcription-factor binding sites has been proposed as a major source of evolutionary change in cis-regulatory DNA and gene expression. We have developed an evolutionary model to study binding site turnover that uses multiple sequence alignments to assess the evolutionary constraint on individual binding sites, and to map gain and loss events along a phylogenetic tree. We apply this model to study the evolutionary dynamics of binding sites of the Drosophila melanogaster transcription factor Zeste, using genome-wide in vivo (ChIP-chip) binding data to identify functional Zeste binding sites, and the genome sequences of D. melanogaster, D. simulans, D. erecta and D. yakuba to study their evolution. We estimate that more than 5 percent of functional Zeste binding sites in D. melanogaster were gained along the D. melanogaster lineage or lost along one of the other lineages. We find that Zeste bound regions have a reduced rate of binding site loss and an increased rate of binding site gain relative to flanking sequences. Finally, we show that binding site gains and losses are asymmetrically distributed with respect to D. melanogaster, consistent with lineage-specific acquisition and loss of Zeste-responsive regulatory elements.