Predation is one mechanism that could lead to low native fish abundance in macrophyte dominated shallow-water habitats in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. We used beach seine and gill net sampling to identify and compare the distribution and feeding ecology of three piscivores (striped bass, Morone saxatilis, largemouth bass, Micropterus salmoides, and Sacramento pikeminnow, Ptychocheilus grandis) at five nearshore sites in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Sampling was conducted March-October 2001 and 2003. We addressed the following questions. What are the spatial and temporal distributions of age-1 and older striped bass, largemouth bass, and Sacramento pikeminnow? What prey are eaten by these predators? What is the relative importance of predator size versus seasonal prey availability on incidence of piscivory for these predators? What is the likely per capita impact of each piscivore on prey fishes, particularly native fishes? All 76 of our individual station visits yielded at least one of the three species, suggesting that piscivorous fishes frequently occur in Delta shallow-water habitats. All three piscivores had diverse diets.There were noticeable seasonal shifts in prey fish for each of the three piscivores. In general, most native fish were consumed during spring (March-May) and the highest prey species richness occurred during summer (June-August). Largemouth bass likely have the highest per capita impact on nearshore fishes, including native fishes. Largemouth bass preyed on a greater diversity of native fishes than the other two piscivores and consumed native fishes farther into the season (July versus May). Based on binomial generalized additive models, incidence of piscivory was predominantly a function of size for largemouth bass and Sacramento pikeminnow. Largemouth bass became predominantly piscivorous at smaller sizes than Sacramento pikeminnow; about 115 mm versus about 190 mm respectively. In contrast, incidence of piscivory was predominantly a function of season for striped bass. Striped bass were typically most piscivorous during summer and fall regardless of size. We conclude that shallow-water piscivores are widespread in the Delta and generally respond in a density-dependent manner to seasonal changes in prey availability.

Striped Bass, Morone saxatilis, has been an established member of the San Francisco Estuary’s (estuary’s) aquatic community for nearly a century and a half. As a predator, it has the potential to shape community composition through top-down control of lower trophic species, including the endangered Delta Smelt, Hypomesus transpacificus. Invasive predators can be particularly disruptive to native communities because they present novel dangers to naïve populations, but, as a long-established member of the aquatic community, Striped Bass has not previously been considered to limit the Delta Smelt population. Here, we develop an argument that Striped Bass are important to controlling Delta Smelt. We support this argument by reviewing historical data which suggests that declines in Delta Smelt before the current-day monitoring program were driven by the invasion of Striped Bass into the estuary. We describe this phenomenon as the ‘phantom predator’ hypothesis in the context of an analog to the shifting baseline syndrome previously described for marine fisheries. A deeper understanding of how well studied (and rapidly changing) bottom-up drivers of the estuary food web interact with poorly understood (but also rapidly changing) controls at the top of the food web could prove very important to the conservation of other declining native fishes and possible future attempts to re-introduce captive-reared Delta Smelt to the estuary.

Movements of pelagic organisms in the tidal freshwater regions of estuaries are sensitive to the movements of water. In the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta—the tidal freshwater reach of the San Francisco Estuary—such movements are key to losses of fish and other organisms to entrainment in large water-export facilities. We used the Delta Simulation Model-2 hydrodynamic model and its particle tracking model to examine the principal determinants of entrainment losses to the export facilities and how movement of fish through the Delta may be influenced by flow. We modeled 936 scenarios for 74 different conditions of flow, diversions, tides, and removable barriers to address seven questions regarding hydrodynamics and entrainment risk in the Delta. Tide had relatively small effects on fate and residence time of particles. Release location and hydrology interacted to control particle fate and residence time. The ratio of flow into the export facilities to freshwater flow into the Delta (export:inflow or EI ratio) was a useful predictor of entrainment probability if the model were allowed to run long enough to resolve particles’ ultimate fate. Agricultural diversions within the Delta increased total entrainment losses and altered local movement patterns. Removable barriers in channels of the southern Delta and gates in the Delta Cross Channel in the northern Delta had minor effects on particles released in the rivers above these channels. A simulation of losses of larval delta smelt showed substantial cumulative losses depending on both inflow and export flow. A simulation mimicking mark–recapture experiments on Chinook salmon smolts suggested that both inflow and export flow may be important factors determining survival of salmon in the upper estuary. To the extent that fish behave passively, this model is probably suitable for describing Delta-wide movement, but it is less suitable for smaller scales or alternative configurations of the Delta.

Managing endangered species is challenging when increased rarity leads to an inability to detect their responses to environmental conditions. In the San Francisco Estuary, the state and federally listed Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) has declined to record low numbers, elevating concern over entrainment at the State Water Project (SWP) and Central Valley Project (CVP) water export facilities. The objective of this study was to: (1) revisit previous work on factors that affect adult Delta Smelt collected at the SWP and CVP fish collection facilities using updated conceptual models and a new statistical approach; and (2) to determine factors that affect salvage at time-scales of interest to management. Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) models were applied to salvage data at the SWP and CVP, aggregated into two response categories: a “first flush” response that represented daily salvage from the start of the entrainment window to the 50% midpoint of observed salvage, and a “seasonal” response that included daily salvage from the entire entrainment window. Precipitation, sub-adult abundance, Yolo Bypass flow, and exports best explained first flush salvage at both the SWP and CVP. The seasonal models included a similar set of influential variables, but the relative influence of precipitation was lower compared to the first flush models., Yolo Bypass flow was more influential for seasonal salvage at the SWP, compared to the CVP; Old and Middle River flow was more influential for seasonal salvage at the CVP. Although the rank of variable importance that explains salvage differed slightly between first flush and seasonal time-scales, this study suggests that salvage is most influenced by hydrodynamics, water quality, and population abundance. The application of BRT models to predict salvage is limited, because salvage has been low since federal protections were implemented in 2008. Forecast models that integrate real-time variables with fish behavior models may improve Delta Smelt management.

The biological productivity of river-dominated estuaries is affected strongly by variation in freshwater inflow, which affects nursery habitat quality. Previous research has shown this is generally true in the upper San Francisco Estuary, California, USA; however, one endemic species of high management importance, delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), has shown ambiguous population responses to river inflow variation. We hypothesized that population-level associations with abiotic habitat metrics have not been apparent because the effects occur seasonally, and at spatial scales smaller than the entire upper San Francisco Estuary. We tested this hypothesis by applying regression techniques and principal components analysis (PCA) to a long-term data-set (1970–2004) of summertime fish catch, and concurrently measured water quality (specific conductance, Secchi disk depth, and water temperature). We found that all three water quality variables predicted delta smelt occurrence, and we identified three distinct geographic regions that had similar long-term trends in delta smelt capture probabilities. The primary habitat region was centered on the confluence of the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers; delta smelt relative abundance was typically highest in the Confluence region throughout the study period. There were two marginal habitat regions—including one centered on Suisun Bay—where specific conductance was highest and delta smelt relative abundance varied with specific conductance. The second marginal habitat region was centered on the San Joaquin River and southern Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. The San Joaquin region had the warmest water temperatures and the highest water clarity, which increased strongly in this region during 1970–2004. In the San Joaquin region, where delta smelt relative abundance was correlated with water clarity, catches declined rapidly to zero from 1970–1978 and remained consistently near zero thereafter. However, when we combined these regional results into estuary-wide means, there were no significant relationships between any of the water quality variables and delta smelt relative abundance. Our findings support the hypothesis that basic water quality parameters are predictors of delta smelt relative abundance, but only at regional spatial scales.

While there is substantial information about the upstream migration of commercially and recreationally important fishes, relatively little is known about the upstream migration of small-bodied species, particularly through estuaries. In the San Francisco Estuary, there is a major need to understand the behavior of delta smelt Hypomesus transpacificus, a small pelagic fish listed under the state and federal endangered species acts. The spawning migration period may be critical as upstream movements can result in entrainment in water diversions. In general, delta smelt live in the low-salinity zone of the estuary and migrate upstream for spawning. During the fall pre-migration period, delta smelt remain primarily within the low-salinity zone in the western Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Bay. There were no significant upstream shifts of fish into fresher water during late fall, suggesting that delta smelt do not show pre-migration staging behavior. Following winter “first flush” flow events that appear to trigger migration, upstream movement rates are relatively rapid, averaging 3.6 km/d, a finding consistent with results from particle-tracking simulations, laboratory studies, and other fishes. Like some other native fishes, delta smelt apparently “hold” in upstream areas following migration; most do not spawn immediately. Overall, delta smelt fit the pattern of a diadromous species that is a seasonal reproductive migrant. Emerging data suggest that there is variability in the migration behavior of delta smelt, a pattern contrary to the reigning viewpoint that all smelt migrate in winter.

Tidal marsh restoration is an important management issue in the San Francisco Estuary (estuary). Restoration of large areas of tidal marsh is ongoing or planned in the lower estuary (up to 6,000 ha, Callaway et al. 2011). Large areas are proposed for restoration in the upper estuary under the Endangered Species Act biological opinions (3,237 ha) and the Bay Delta Conservation Plan (26,305 ha). In the lower estuary, tidal marsh has proven its value to a wide array of species that live within it (Palaima 2012). In the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta), one important function ascribed to restoration of freshwater tidal marshes is that they make large contributions to the food web of fish in open waters (BDCP 2013). The Ecosystem Restoration Program ascribed a suite of ecological functions to tidal marsh restoration, including habitat and food web benefits to native fish (CDFW 2010). This background was the basis for a symposium, Tidal Marshes and Native Fishes in the Delta: Will Restoration Make a Difference? held at the University of California, Davis, on June 10, 2013. This paper summarizes conclusions the authors drew from the symposium.