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Scholarly Works (2 results)

  • Thesis
  • Peer Reviewed
UC Irvine Electronic Theses and Dissertations (2015)

ABSTRACT OF THE THESIS

Weather Augmented Risk Determination (WARD) System

By

Mohsen Niknejad

Master of Science in Civil and Environmental Engineering

University of California, Irvine, 2015

Professor Amir AghaKouchak, Chair

Extreme climatic events have direct (e.g., physical damage) and indirect impacts (e.g., low air

quality caused by a dry spell) on society, economy and the environment. Based on the United

States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, over one third of the U.S. GDP can be

considered as weather-sensitive involving some degree of weather risk. This expands from a

local scale concrete foundation construction to large scale transportation systems. Extreme and

unexpected weather conditions have always been considered as one of the probable risks to

human health, productivity and activities. The construction industry is a large sector of the

economy, and is also greatly influenced by weather-related risks including work stoppage and

low labor productivity. Identification and quantification of these risks, and providing mitigation

of their effects are always the concerns of construction project managers. In addition to severe

weather conditions’ destructive effects, seasonal changes in weather conditions can also have

negative impacts on human health. Work stoppage and reduced labor productivity can be caused

by precipitation, wind, temperature, relative humidity and other weather conditions. Historical

and project-specific weather information can improve better project management and mitigation

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planning, and ultimately reduce the risk of weather-related conditions. This thesis proposes new

software for project-specific user-defined data analysis that offers (a) probability of work

stoppage and the estimated project length considering weather conditions; (b) information on

reduced labor productivity and its impacts on project duration; and (c) probabilistic information

on the project timeline based on both weather-related work stoppage and labor productivity. The

software (WARD System) is designed such that it can be integrated into the already available

project management tools. While the system and presented application focuses on the

construction industry, the developed software is general and can be used for any application that

involves labor productivity (e.g., farming) and work stoppage due to weather conditions (e.g.,

transportation, agriculture industry). The system is designed to offer work stoppage and labor

productivity information based on user-defined weather conditions.

    Cover page: Weather Augmented Risk Determination (WARD) System
    • Article
    • Peer Reviewed
    UC Irvine Previously Published Works (2017)
    Rising global temperatures are causing increases in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events, such as floods, droughts, and heat waves. We analyze changes in summer temperatures, the frequency, severity, and duration of heat waves, and heat-related mortality in India between 1960 and 2009 using data from the India Meteorological Department. Mean temperatures across India have risen by more than 0.5°C over this period, with statistically significant increases in heat waves. Using a novel probabilistic model, we further show that the increase in summer mean temperatures in India over this period corresponds to a 146% increase in the probability of heat-related mortality events of more than 100 people. In turn, our results suggest that future climate warming will lead to substantial increases in heat-related mortality, particularly in developing low-latitude countries, such as India, where heat waves will become more frequent and populations are especially vulnerable to these extreme temperatures. Our findings indicate that even moderate increases in mean temperatures may cause great increases in heat-related mortality and support the efforts of governments and international organizations to build up the resilience of these vulnerable regions to more severe heat waves.
      Cover page: Increasing probability of mortality during Indian heat wavesCreative Commons 'BY' version 4.0 license
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