OBJECTIVE: Serum albumin is a marker of malnutrition and inflammation and has been demonstrated as a strong predictor of mortality in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients. Yet, whether serum albumin levels in late-stage CKD are associated with adverse outcomes after the transition to ESRD is unknown. We hypothesize that lower levels and a decline in serum albumin in late-stage CKD are associated with higher risk of mortality and hospitalization rates 1 year after transition to ESRD. DESIGN AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 29,124 US veterans with advanced CKD transitioning to ESRD between 2007 and 2015. We evaluated the association of pre-ESRD (91 days before transition) serum albumin with 12-month post-ESRD all-cause, cardiovascular, and infection-related mortalities and hospitalization rates as well as the association of 1-year pre-ESRD albumin slope and 12-month post-ESRD mortality using hierarchical multivariable adjustments. RESULTS: There was a negative linear association between serum albumin and all-cause mortality, such that risk doubled (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.07, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.87, 2.28) for patients with the lowest serum albumin <2.8 g/dL (ref: ≥4.0 g/dL) after full adjustment. A consistent relationship was observed between serum albumin and cardiovascular and infection-related mortality, and hospitalization outcomes. An increase in serum albumin of >0.25 g/dL/year was associated with reduced mortality risk (HR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.63, 0.91) compared with a slight decline in albumin (ref: >-0.25 to 0 g/dL/year), whereas a decline more than 0.5 g/dL/year was associated with a 55% higher risk in mortality (HR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.43, 1.68) in fully adjusted models. CONCLUSIONS: Lower pre-ESRD serum albumin was associated with higher post-ESRD all-cause, cardiovascular, and infection-related mortalities and hospitalization rates. Declining serum albumin levels in the pre-ESRD period were also associated with worse 12-month post-ESRD mortality.

There is accumulating evidence that serum levels of non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C) are a more accurate predictor of cardiovascular outcomes when compared with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. However, we recently found that higher serum concentrations of triglycerides are associated with better outcomes in patients undergoing hemodialysis. Therefore, we hypothesized that the association of serum levels of non-HDL-C (which includes triglyceride-rich lipoproteins) with outcomes may also be different in patients undergoing hemodialysis when compared with other patient populations. We studied the association of baseline and time-dependent serum levels of non-HDL-C with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality using Cox proportional hazard regression models in a nationally representative cohort of 50 118 patients undergoing incident hemodialysis from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2011. In time-dependent models adjusted for case mix and surrogates of malnutrition and inflammation, a graded inverse association between non-HDL-C level and mortality was demonstrated with hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of the lowest (<60 mg/dL) and highest (≥160 mg/dL) categories: 1.88 (1.72-2.06) and 0.73 (0.64-0.83) for all-cause mortality and 2.07 (1.78-2.41) and 0.75 (0.60-0.93) for cardiovascular mortality, respectively (reference, 100-115 mg/dL). In analyses using baseline values, non-HDL-C levels <100 mg/dL were also associated with significantly higher mortality risk across all levels of adjustment. Similar associations were found when evaluating non-HDL/HDL cholesterol ratio and mortality, with the highest all-cause and cardiovascular mortality being observed in patients with decreased non-HDL/HDL-C ratio (<2.5). Contrary to the general population, decrements in non-HDL-C and non-HDL/HDL cholesterol ratio were paradoxically associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients undergoing incident hemodialysis. The underlying mechanisms responsible for these associations await further investigation.

Objectives

Serum albumin (sAlb) may be a strong predictor of longevity in the general population and in chronic kidney disease. This study aimed to determine the relationship between sAlb concentrations and mortality risk independent of kidney function.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of 31 274 adults from the 1999-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was examined as both a confounder and modifier of the association of sAlb with mortality risk. We examined the association of sAlb (categorized as <3.8, 3.8 to <4.0, 4.0 to <4.2, 4.2 to <4.4, 4.4 to <4.6, 4.6 to <4.8, and ≥4.8 g/dL) with mortality using Cox models. Subsequently, we conducted spline analyses to estimate the association of sAlb with all-cause mortality across varying eGFR levels.

Results

In unadjusted analyses, participants with incrementally lower sAlb concentrations of <4.6 g/dL had an increasingly higher mortality risk compared with those with sAlb levels ranging from 4.6 to <4.8 g/dL (reference), whereas those with higher sAlb levels of ≥4.8 g/dL had a lower mortality risk (hazard ratios [95% confidence interval]: 3.88 [3.26-4.62], 3.59 [3.01-4.27], 2.79 [2.37-3.29], 2.10 [1.79-2.48], 1.72 [1.45-2.03], and 0.71 [0.55-0.92] for sAlb concentrations of <3.8, 3.8 to <4.0, 4.0 to <4.2, 4.2 to <4.4, 4.4 to <4.6, and ≥4.8 g/dL, respectively). Adjusted analyses showed similar findings, although the association of higher sAlb levels of ≥4.8 g/dL with better survival was attenuated to the null. Spline analyses showed that participants with sAlb levels of <4.6 g/dL had higher mortality across all concentrations of eGFR, ranging from 30 to 120 mL/min/1.73 m² (reference: sAlb ≥ 4.6 g/dL).

Conclusions

Among a nationally representative U.S. cohort, a graded association was observed between lower sAlb concentrations and higher death risk, which was robust across varying levels of kidney function.

While obesity is associated with a variety of complications including diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease and premature death, observational studies have also found that obesity and increasing body mass index (BMI) can be linked with improved survival in certain patient populations, including those with conditions marked by protein-energy wasting and dysmetabolism that ultimately lead to cachexia. The latter observations have been reported in various clinical settings including end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and have been described as the "obesity paradox" or "reverse epidemiology", engendering controversy. While some have attributed the obesity paradox to residual confounding in an effort to "debunk" these observations, recent experimental discoveries provide biologically plausible mechanisms in which higher BMI can be linked to longevity in certain groups of patients. In addition, sophisticated epidemiologic methods that extensively adjusted for confounding have found that the obesity paradox remains robust in ESRD. Furthermore, novel hypotheses suggest that weight loss and cachexia can be linked to adverse outcomes including cardiomyopathy, arrhythmias, sudden death and poor outcomes. Therefore, the survival benefit observed in obese ESRD patients can at least partly be derived from mechanisms that protect against inefficient energy utilization, cachexia and protein-energy wasting. Given that in ESRD patients, treatment of traditional risk factors has failed to alter outcomes, detailed translational studies of the obesity paradox may help identify innovative pathways that can be targeted to improve survival. We have reviewed recent clinical evidence detailing the association of BMI with outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease, including ESRD, and discuss potential mechanisms underlying the obesity paradox with potential for clinical applicability.

Objective

Serum albumin is a marker of malnutrition and inflammation and has been demonstrated as a strong predictor of mortality in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients. Yet, whether serum albumin levels in late-stage CKD are associated with adverse outcomes after the transition to ESRD is unknown. We hypothesize that lower levels and a decline in serum albumin in late-stage CKD are associated with higher risk of mortality and hospitalization rates 1 year after transition to ESRD.

Design and methods

This retrospective cohort study included 29,124 US veterans with advanced CKD transitioning to ESRD between 2007 and 2015. We evaluated the association of pre-ESRD (91 days before transition) serum albumin with 12-month post-ESRD all-cause, cardiovascular, and infection-related mortalities and hospitalization rates as well as the association of 1-year pre-ESRD albumin slope and 12-month post-ESRD mortality using hierarchical multivariable adjustments.

Results

There was a negative linear association between serum albumin and all-cause mortality, such that risk doubled (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.07, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.87, 2.28) for patients with the lowest serum albumin <2.8 g/dL (ref: ≥4.0 g/dL) after full adjustment. A consistent relationship was observed between serum albumin and cardiovascular and infection-related mortality, and hospitalization outcomes. An increase in serum albumin of >0.25 g/dL/year was associated with reduced mortality risk (HR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.63, 0.91) compared with a slight decline in albumin (ref: >-0.25 to 0 g/dL/year), whereas a decline more than 0.5 g/dL/year was associated with a 55% higher risk in mortality (HR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.43, 1.68) in fully adjusted models.

Conclusions

Lower pre-ESRD serum albumin was associated with higher post-ESRD all-cause, cardiovascular, and infection-related mortalities and hospitalization rates. Declining serum albumin levels in the pre-ESRD period were also associated with worse 12-month post-ESRD mortality.