The increasing contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to sea level rise is linked to reductions in ice shelf buttressing, driven in large part by basal melting of ice shelves. These ocean-driven buttressing losses are being compounded as ice shelves weaken and fracture. To date, model projections of ice sheet evolution have not accounted for weakening ice shelves. Here we present the first constitutive framework for ice deformation that explicitly includes mechanical weakening, based on observations of the progressive degradation of the remnant Larsen B Ice Shelf from 2000 to 2015. We implement this framework in an ice sheet model and are able to reproduce most of the observed weakening of the ice shelf. In addition to predicting ice shelf weakening and reduced buttressing, this new framework opens the door for improved understanding and predictions of iceberg calving, meltwater routing and hydrofracture, and ice shelf collapse.

Following the 2002 disintegration of the northern and central parts of the Larsen B Ice Shelf, the tributary glaciers of the southern surviving part initially appeared relatively unchanged and hence assumed to be buttressed sufficiently by the remnant ice shelf. Here, we modify this perception with observations from IceBridge altimetry and InSAR-inferred ice flow speeds. Our analyses show that the surfaces of Leppard and Flask glaciers directly upstream from their grounding lines lowered by 15 to 20 m in the period 2002-2011. The thinning appears to be dynamic as the flow of both glaciers and the remnant ice shelf accelerated in the same period. Flask Glacier started accelerating even before the 2002 disintegration, increasing its flow speed by ~55% between 1997 and 2012. Starbuck Glacier meanwhile did not change much. We hypothesize that the different evolutions of the three glaciers are related to their dissimilar bed topographies and degrees of grounding. We apply numerical modeling and data assimilation that show these changes to be accompanied by a reduction in the buttressing afforded by the remnant ice shelf, a weakening of the shear zones between its flow units and an increase in its fracture. The fast flowing northwestern part of the remnant ice shelf exhibits increasing fragmentation, while the stagnant southeastern part seems to be prone to the formation of large rifts, some of which we show have delimited successive calving events. A large rift only 12 km downstream from the grounding line is currently traversing the stagnant part of the ice shelf, defining the likely front of the next large calving event. We propose that the flow acceleration, ice front retreat and enhanced fracture of the remnant Larsen B Ice Shelf presage its approaching demise.

© 2015 Elsevier B.V. Following the 2002 disintegration of the northern and central parts of the Larsen B Ice Shelf, the tributary glaciers of the southern surviving part initially appeared relatively unchanged and hence assumed to be buttressed sufficiently by the remnant ice shelf. Here, we modify this perception with observations from IceBridge altimetry and InSAR-inferred ice flow speeds. Our analyses show that the surfaces of Leppard and Flask glaciers directly upstream from their grounding lines lowered by 15 to 20 m in the period 2002-2011. The thinning appears to be dynamic as the flow of both glaciers and the remnant ice shelf accelerated in the same period. Flask Glacier started accelerating even before the 2002 disintegration, increasing its flow speed by ~55% between 1997 and 2012. Starbuck Glacier meanwhile did not change much. We hypothesize that the different evolutions of the three glaciers are related to their dissimilar bed topographies and degrees of grounding. We apply numerical modeling and data assimilation that show these changes to be accompanied by a reduction in the buttressing afforded by the remnant ice shelf, a weakening of the shear zones between its flow units and an increase in its fracture. The fast flowing northwestern part of the remnant ice shelf exhibits increasing fragmentation, while the stagnant southeastern part seems to be prone to the formation of large rifts, some of which we show have delimited successive calving events. A large rift only 12 km downstream from the grounding line is currently traversing the stagnant part of the ice shelf, defining the likely front of the next large calving event. We propose that the flow acceleration, ice front retreat and enhanced fracture of the remnant Larsen B Ice Shelf presage its approaching demise.

The airborne glacier and ice surface topography interferometer (GLISTIN-A) is a single-pass radar interferometer developed for accurate high-resolution swath mapping of dynamic ice surfaces. We present the first validation results of the operational sensor, collected in 2013 over glaciers in Alaska and followed by more exhaustive collections from Greenland in 2016 and 2017. In Alaska, overlapping flight-tracks were mosaicked to mitigate potential residual trends across-track and the resultant maps are validated with lidar. Furthermore, repeat acquisitions of Columbia Glacier collected with a three day separation indicate excellent stability and repeatability. Commencing 2016, GLISTIN-A has circumnavigated Greenland for 4 consecutive years. Due to flight hour limitations, overlapping swaths were not flown. In 2016, comparison with airborne lidar data finds that residual systematic errors exhibit evenly distributed small slopes (all less than 10 millidegrees) and nadir biases were typically less than 1 m. Similarly 2017 data exhibited up to meter-scale nadir biases and evenly distributed residual slopes with a standard deviation of ~10 millidegrees). All satisfied the science accuracy requirements of the Greenland campaigns (3 m accuracy across an 8 km swath).

Enhanced submarine ice-shelf melting strongly controls ice loss in the Amundsen Sea embayment (ASE) of West Antarctica, but its magnitude is not well known in the critical grounding zones of the ASE's major glaciers. Here we directly quantify bottom ice losses along tens of kilometres with airborne radar sounding of the Dotson and Crosson ice shelves, which buttress the rapidly changing Smith, Pope and Kohler glaciers. Melting in the grounding zones is found to be much higher than steady-state levels, removing 300-490 m of solid ice between 2002 and 2009 beneath the retreating Smith Glacier. The vigorous, unbalanced melting supports the hypothesis that a significant increase in ocean heat influx into ASE sub-ice-shelf cavities took place in the mid-2000s. The synchronous but diverse evolutions of these glaciers illustrate how combinations of oceanography and topography modulate rapid submarine melting to hasten mass loss and glacier retreat from West Antarctica.