Quantitative characterization of soil organic carbon (OC) content is essential due to its significant impacts on surface-subsurface hydrological-Thermal processes and microbial decomposition of OC, which both in turn are important for predicting carbon-climate feedbacks. While such quantification is particularly important in the vulnerable organic-rich Arctic region, it is challenging to achieve due to the general limitations of conventional core sampling and analysis methods, and to the extremely dynamic nature of hydrological-Thermal processes associated with annual freeze-Thaw events. In this study, we develop and test an inversion scheme that can flexibly use single or multiple datasets-including soil liquid water content, temperature and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data-to estimate the vertical distribution of OC content. Our approach relies on the fact that OC content strongly influences soil hydrological-Thermal parameters and, therefore, indirectly controls the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil liquid water content, temperature and their correlated electrical resistivity. We employ the Community Land Model to simulate nonisothermal surface-subsurface hydrological dynamics from the bedrock to the top of canopy, with consideration of land surface processes (e.g., solar radiation balance, evapotranspiration, snow accumulation and melting) and ice-liquid water phase transitions. For inversion, we combine a deterministic and an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) optimization algorithm to estimate a posteriori distributions of desired model parameters. For hydrological-Thermal-To-geophysical variable transformation, the simulated subsurface temperature, liquid water content and ice content are explicitly linked to soil electrical resistivity via petrophysical and geophysical models. We validate the developed scheme using different numerical experiments and evaluate the influence of measurement errors and benefit of joint inversion on the estimation of OC and other parameters. We also quantify the propagation of uncertainty from the estimated parameters to prediction of hydrological-Thermal responses. We find that, compared to inversion of single dataset (temperature, liquid water content or apparent resistivity), joint inversion of these datasets significantly reduces parameter uncertainty. We find that the joint inversion approach is able to estimate OC and sand content within the shallow active layer (top 0.3ĝ€m of soil) with high reliability. Due to the small variations of temperature and moisture within the shallow permafrost (here at about 0.6ĝ€m depth), the approach is unable to estimate OC with confidence. However, if the soil porosity is functionally related to the OC and mineral content, which is often observed in organic-rich Arctic soil, the uncertainty of OC estimate at this depth remarkably decreases. Our study documents the value of the new surface-subsurface, deterministic-stochastic inversion approach, as well as the benefit of including multiple types of data to estimate OC and associated hydrological-Thermal dynamics.

Quantitative understanding of controls on thaw layer thickness (TLT) dynamics in the Arctic peninsula is essential for predictive understanding of permafrost degradation feedbacks to global warming and hydrobiochemical processes. This study jointly interprets electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) measurements and hydro-thermal numerical simulation results to assess spatiotemporal variations of TLT and to determine its controlling factors in Barrow, Alaska. Time-lapse ERT measurements along a 35-m transect were autonomously collected from 2013 to 2015 and inverted to obtain soil electrical resistivity. Based on several probe-based TLT measurements and co-located soil electrical resistivity, we estimated the electrical resistivity thresholds associated with the boundary between the thaw layer and permafrost using a grid search optimization algorithm. Then, we used the obtained thresholds to derive the TLT from all soil electrical resistivity images. The spatiotemporal analysis of the ERT-derived TLT shows that the TLT at high-centered polygons (HCPs) is smaller than that at low-centered polygons (LCPs), and that both thawing and freezing occur earlier at the HCPs compared to the LCPs. In order to provide a physical explanation for dynamics in the thaw layer, we performed 1-D hydro-thermal simulations using the community land model (CLM). Simulation results showed that air temperature and precipitation jointly govern the temporal variations of TLT, while the topsoil organic content (SOC) and polygon morphology are responsible for its spatial variations. When the topsoil SOC and its thickness increase, TLT decreases. Meanwhile, at LCPs, a thicker snow layer and saturated soil contribute to a thicker TLT and extend the time needed for TLT to freeze and thaw. This research highlights the importance of combination of measurements and numerical modeling to improve our understanding spatiotemporal variations and key controls of TLT in cold regions.

Seasonal variations in high-latitude terrestrial carbon (C) fluxes are predominantly driven by air temperature and radiation. At present, high-latitude net C uptake is largest during the summer. Recent observations and modeling studies have demonstrated that ongoing and projected climate change will increase plant productivity, microbial respiration, and growing season lengths at high-latitudes, but impacts on high-latitude C cycle seasonality (and potential feedbacks to the climate system) remain uncertain. Here we use ecosys, a well-tested and process-rich mechanistic ecosystem model that we evaluate further in this study, to explore how climate warming under an RCP8.5 scenario will shift C cycle seasonality in Alaska throughout the 21st century. The model successfully reproduced recently reported large high-latitude C losses during the fall and winter and yet still predicts a high-latitude C sink, pointing to a resolution of the current conflict between process-model and observation-based estimates of high-latitude C balance. We find that warming will result in surprisingly large changes in net ecosystem exchange (NEE; defined as negative for uptake) seasonality, with spring net C uptake overtaking summer net C uptake by year 2100. This shift is driven by a factor of 3 relaxation of spring temperature limitation to plant productivity that results in earlier C uptake and a corresponding increase in magnitude of spring NEE from -19 to -144 gC m-2 season-1 by the end of the century. Although a similar relaxation of temperature limitation will occur in the fall, radiation limitation during those months will limit increases in C fixation. Additionally, warmer soil temperatures and increased carbon inputs from plants lead to combined fall and winter C losses (163 gC m-2) that are larger than summer net uptake (123 gC m-2 season-1) by year 2100. However, this increase in microbial activity leads to more rapid N cycling and increased plant N uptake during the fall and winter months that supports large increases in spring NPP. Due to the large increases in spring net C uptake, the high-latitude atmospheric C sink is projected to sustain throughout this century. Our analysis disentangles the effects of key environmental drivers of high-latitude seasonal C balances as climate changes over the 21st century.

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the water balance, which influences hydrometeorology, water resources, carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, and ecosystem diversity. This study aims to investigate the spatio-temporal variations of ET at the East River watershed in Colorado and analyze the factors that control these variations. ET was acquired using the community land model (CLM) simulations and was compared with the values estimated using Fu's equation and a watershed-scale water balance equation. The simulation results showed that 55% of annual precipitation in the East River is lost to ET, in which 75% of the ET comes from the summer months (May to September). We also found that the contribution of transpiration to the total ET was ~50%, which is much larger than that of soil evaporation (32%) and canopy evaporation (18%). Spatial analysis indicated that the ET is greater at elevations of 2950-3200 m and lower along the river valley ( < 2750 m) and at the high elevations ( > 3900 m). A correlation analysis of factors affecting ET showed that the land elevation, air temperature, and vegetation are closely correlated and together they govern the ET spatial variability. The results also suggested that ET in areas with more finely textured soil is slightly larger than regions with coarse-texture soil. This study presents a promising approach to the assessment of ET with a high spatiotemporal resolution over watershed scales and investigates factors controlling ET spatiotemporal variations.

Geochemical hot moments are defined here as short periods of time that are associated with disproportionally high levels of concentrations (biogeochemically-driven or transport-related) relative to longer intervening time periods. We used entropy and wavelet techniques to identify temporal variability in geochemical constituents and their controls along three transects within a contaminated floodplain system near Rifle CO. Results indicated that transport-dominated hot moments drove overall geochemical processing in the contaminated groundwater and seep zones. These hot moments were associated with seasonal hydrologic variability (∼4 months) in the contaminated aquifer and with annual hydrologic cycle and residence times in the seep zone. Hot moments associated with a naturally reduced zone within the aquifer were found to be biogeochemically-driven, with a different dominant frequency (∼3 months) and no correlation to hydrologic or weather variations, in contrast to what is observed in other regions of the floodplain.