- McClure, Michelle M;
- Haltuch, Melissa A;
- Willis-Norton, Ellen;
- Huff, David D;
- Hazen, Elliott L;
- Crozier, Lisa G;
- Jacox, Michael G;
- Nelson, Mark W;
- Andrews, Kelly S;
- Barnett, Lewis AK;
- Berger, Aaron M;
- Beyer, Sabrina;
- Bizzarro, Joe;
- Boughton, David;
- Cope, Jason M;
- Carr, Mark;
- Dewar, Heidi;
- Dick, Edward;
- Dorval, Emmanis;
- Dunham, Jason;
- Gertseva, Vladlena;
- Greene, Correigh M;
- Gustafson, Richard G;
- Hamel, Owen S;
- Harvey, Chris J;
- Henderson, Mark J;
- Jordan, Chris E;
- Kaplan, Isaac C;
- Lindley, Steven T;
- Mantua, Nathan J;
- Matson, Sean E;
- Monk, Melissa H;
- Moyle, Peter;
- Nicol, Colin;
- Pohl, John;
- Rykaczewski, Ryan R;
- Samhouri, Jameal F;
- Sogard, Susan;
- Tolimieri, Nick;
- Wallace, John;
- Wetzel, Chantel;
- Bograd, Steven J
Introduction: Understanding how abundance, productivity and distribution of individual species may respond to climate change is a critical first step towards anticipating alterations in marine ecosystem structure and function, as well as developing strategies to adapt to the full range of potential changes. Methods: This study applies the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Fisheries Climate Vulnerability Assessment method to 64 federally-managed species in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem to assess their vulnerability to climate change, where vulnerability is a function of a species’ exposure to environmental change and its biological sensitivity to a set of environmental conditions, which includes components of its resiliency and adaptive capacity to respond to these new conditions. Results: Overall, two-thirds of the species were judged to have Moderate or greater vulnerability to climate change, and only one species was anticipated to have a positive response. Species classified as Highly or Very Highly vulnerable share one or more characteristics including: 1) having complex life histories that utilize a wide range of freshwater and marine habitats; 2) having habitat specialization, particularly for areas that are likely to experience increased hypoxia; 3) having long lifespans and low population growth rates; and/or 4) being of high commercial value combined with impacts from non-climate stressors such as anthropogenic habitat degradation. Species with Low or Moderate vulnerability are either habitat generalists, occupy deep-water habitats or are highly mobile and likely to shift their ranges. Discussion: As climate-related changes intensify, this work provides key information for both scientists and managers as they address the long-term sustainability of fisheries in the region. This information can inform near-term advice for prioritizing species-level data collection and research on climate impacts, help managers to determine when and where a precautionary approach might be warranted, in harvest or other management decisions, and help identify habitats or life history stages that might be especially effective to protect or restore.