Dynamically similar regions of the global ocean are identified using a barotropic vorticity (BV) framework from a 20-year mean of the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean state estimate at 1° resolution. An unsupervised machine learning algorithm, K-means, objectively clusters the standardized BV equation, identifying five unambiguous regimes. Cluster 1 covers 43 ± 3.3% of the ocean area. Surface and bottom stress torque are balanced by the bottom pressure torque and the nonlinear torque. Cluster 2 covers 24.8 ± 1.2%, where the beta effect balances the bottom pressure torque. Cluster 3 covers 14.6 ± 1.0%, characterized by a Quasi-Sverdrupian regime where the beta effect is balanced by the wind and bottom stress term. The small region of Cluster 4 has baroclinic dynamics covering 6.9 ± 2.9% of the ocean. Cluster 5 occurs primarily in the Southern Ocean. Residual dominantly nonlinear regions highlight where the BV approach is inadequate, found in areas of rough topography in the Southern Ocean and along western boundaries.

Abstract: Physics-based simulations of Arctic sea ice are highly complex, involving transport between different phases, length scales, and time scales. Resultantly, numerical simulations of sea-ice dynamics have a high computational cost and model uncertainty. We employ data-driven machine learning (ML) to make predictions of sea-ice motion. The ML models are built to predict present-day sea-ice velocity given present-day wind velocity and previous-day sea-ice concentration and velocity. Models are trained using reanalysis winds and satellite-derived sea-ice properties. We compare the predictions of three different models: persistence (PS), linear regression (LR), and convolutional neural network (CNN). We quantify the spatio-temporal variability of the correlation between observations and the statistical model predictions. Additionally, we analyze model performance in comparison to variability in properties related to ice motion (wind velocity, ice velocity, ice concentration, distance from coast, bathymetric depth) to understand the processes related to decreases in model performance. Results indicate that a CNN makes skillful predictions of daily sea-ice velocity with a correlation up to 0.81 between predicted and observed sea-ice velocity, while the LR and PS implementations exhibit correlations of 0.78 and 0.69, respectively. The correlation varies spatially and seasonally; lower values occur in shallow coastal regions and during times of minimum sea-ice extent. LR parameter analysis indicates that wind velocity plays the largest role in predicting sea-ice velocity on one-day time scales, particularly in the central Arctic. Regions where wind velocity has the largest LR parameter are regions where the CNN has higher predictive skill than the LR.

A working group on Greenland Ice Sheet-Ocean Interactions (GRISO), composed of representatives from the multiple disciplines involved, was established in January 2011 to develop strategies to address dynamic response of Greenland's glaciers to climate forcing. Critical aspects of Greenland's coupled ice sheet-ocean system are identified, and a research agenda is outlined that will yield fundamental insights into how the ice sheet and ocean interact, their role in Earth's climate system, their regional and global effects, and probable trajectories of future changes. Key elements of the research agenda are focused process studies, sustained observational efforts at key sites, and inclusion of the relevant dynamics in Earth system models. Interdisciplinary and multiagency efforts, as well as international cooperation, are crucial to making progress on this novel and complex problem. This will prove as a significant step toward fulfilling the goal of credibly projecting sea level rise over the coming decades and century.