Accurately modeling the growth process of plants in interaction with their environment is important for predicting their biophysical characteris-tics, referred to as phenotype prediction. Most models are described by dis-crete dynamic systems in general state-space representation with important domain-specific characteristics: First, plant model parameters have usually clear functional meanings and may be of genetic origins, thus necessitating a precise estimation. Second, critical growth variables, specifically biomass production and dynamic allocation to organs, are hidden variables not acces-sible to measure. Finally, the difficulty to assess the local plant environment may imply the introduction of process noises in models. Therefore, a precise understanding of the system’s behavior requires the joint estimation of functional parameters, hidden states, and noise parameters. In this paper we describe how a full Bayesian method of estimation can accurately estimate all these key model variables using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) tech-niques. In the presence of both process and observation noises, it requires to use adequate particle MCMC (PMCMC) algorithms to efficiently sample the hidden states which, consequently, allows for a precise estimation of all noise parameters involved. Thanks to the Bayesian framework, appropriate choices of prior distributions for the noise parameters have enabled analytical pos-terior distributions and only simple updates are required. Furthermore, this estimation strategy can be easily generalized and adapted to different types of plant growth models, such as organ-scale or compartmental, provided that they are formulated as hidden Markov models. Our estimation method im-proves on those classically used in plant growth modeling in several aspects: First, by building upon a general probabilistic framework the estimation results allow proper statistical analyses. It is useful in prediction, no only for uncertainty and risk analysis (e.g., for crop yield prediction) but also to an-alyze the results of experimental trials, for example, to compare genotypes in breeding. Moreover, the care taken in the estimation of hidden variables opens new perspectives in the understanding of inner growth processes, no-tably the balance and interaction between biomass production and allocation (referred to as source-sink dynamics). Applications of this estimation proce-dure are demonstrated on the GreenLab model for Arabidopsis thaliana and the Log-Normal Allocation and Senescence (LNAS) model for sugar beet, on both synthetic and real data.

This report seeks to inform the potential for motor systems to support decarbonization by estimating their potential energy, electricity cost, and CO2 emissions reduction potential from adoption of proven energy efficiency actions and advanced technologies. This is the third and final report in a series of reports disseminating the findings of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Motor System Market Assessment (MSMA). The MSMA and this report focus on polyphase motor systems greater than or equal to 1 horsepower (hp) in the industrial and commercial sectors. In the U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment Report Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base (Volume 1 report), it was determined that these motor systems consume more than 1,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually. This equates to 29% of the U.S. electric grid load and results in 765 million metric tons (MMT) of CO2 emissions and $166 billion in electricity costs. This report finds that substantial reductions to these energy, cost, and emissions impacts are possible, with three areas of significant opportunity being (1) improved load matching, (2) replacing older inefficient motors with more efficient motors, and (3) improving the condition of fluid (e.g., air, water, compressed air) distribution systems.

This report describes the method Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) developed to estimate national impacts of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) WaterSense labeling program for weather-based irrigation controllers (WBIC). Estimated impacts include the national water savings attributable to the program and the net present value of the lifetime water savings for consumers of irrigation controllers.

Water and wastewater treatment and delivery is the most capital-intensive of all utility services. Historically underpriced, water and wastewater rates have exhibited unprecedented growth in the past fifteen years. Steep annual increases in water and wastewater rates that outpace the Consumer Price Index (CPI) have increasingly become the norm across the United States. In this paper, we analyze water and wastewater rates across U.S. census regions between 2000 and 2014. We also examine some of the driving factors behind these rate increases, including drought, water source, required infrastructure investment, population patterns, and conservation effects. Our results demonstrate that water and wastewater prices have consistently increased and have outstripped CPI throughout the study period nationwide, as well as within each census region. Further, evaluation of the current and upcoming challenges facing water and wastewater utilities suggests that sharp rate increases are likely to continue in the foreseeable future.

Motor systems are an integral part of our industrial and commercial facilities. They provide the motive force behind the fans, pumps, compressors, chillers, and conveyors in these facilities. Given their centrality to any facility’s operations, they are a critical energy end use to understand, particularly when developing technologies and policies to meet sustainability goals, improve productivity, and enhance resilience. In the late 1990s, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) conducted two seminal studies to better understand the installed stock and energy savings opportunities of industrial and commercial motor systems. In the industrial sector, The United States Industrial Electric Motor Systems Market Opportunities Assessment used primary data collected through onsite assessments and led to a greater understanding of the installed base of motor systems, their characteristics, and the opportunities for energy savings (U.S. Department of Energy, 2002). Notable findings included the following: • Industrial motor systems consumed 679 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 1994, representing 23 percent of U.S. electricity consumption. • Cost-effective energy efficiency measures could result in 62-104 billion kWh of energy savings annually. • Sixty-two percent of the energy savings potential was from fan, pump, and compressor end use equipment. • Nearly half of motor system electricity consumption was attributable to approximately 3,500 facilities, or 1.5 percent of U.S. manufacturing facilities. Opportunities for Energy Savings in the Residential and Commercial Sectors with High Efficiency Electric Motors provided an evaluation of the installed stock of motor driven equipment in U.S. commercial and residential buildings and opportunities for utilization of high efficiency motors and variable speed technologies (Arthur D. Little, 1999). Notable findings included the following: • Commercial motor systems consumed 343 billion kWh in 1995, with refrigeration and space conditioning constituting 93 percent of the total. • Cost-effective energy efficiency measures could result in 51 billion kWh of energy savings annually. Due in no small part to these seminal studies, motor system technologies and usage characteristics have changed drastically since the late 1990s. Greater awareness of cost-effective strategies for reducing motor system electricity consumption have been developed and deployed. This includes several software tools, literature, and utility and government programs promoting energy efficiency improvements in motor driven systems. Additionally, several rounds of energy efficiency standards have been enacted, resulting in improved installed motor efficiency. The cost of variable speed drives has dropped substantially, and combined with utility rebate programs, has led to their greater adoption. Further, since these results were published, the U.S. manufacturing sector has undergone a massive transformation. Due to global competition, some sectors have relocated operations overseas. Others have brought operations onshore to avail low cost and abundant natural gas. Additionally, automation and robotics have pervaded the entire sector. Consequently, these two reports likely do not represent the current state of motor driven systems in U.S. industrial and commercial facilities. As cited in recent studies, the lack of current information on motor system electricity consumption and use characteristics limits the ability to conduct analysis on energy savings potential, develop technologies to address energy and productivity gaps, and develop programs to promote energy efficiency practices and technologies for motor systems (International Energy Agency, 2007; UNIDO, 2010; McKane and Hasanbeigi, 2011; Waide and Brunner, 2011). Specifically, the lack of information affects a range of stakeholders: • Governments must rely on outdated information when setting research agendas, developing policies, and designing energy efficiency programs and offerings. • Utilities and energy efficiency programs cannot identify the current market needs or potential impact when designing rebate and energy efficiency programs. • Electric grid planners cannot identify motor system usage characteristics when developing plans to support the resilience of the electric grid. • Manufacturers of motors, motor driven equipment, and drives are hampered when developing technologies to meet the needs of their market. • Motor system end users are limited in their ability to identify energy saving opportunities within their own facilities because they do not have reliable benchmark information. In response to the lack of current information and analysis on industrial and commercial motor systems, the DOE initiated an update to these two studies. Launched in 2016 and led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), the Motor System Market Assessment (MSMA) provides an updated, more comprehensive assessment of the installed stock of motor systems in both the industrial and commercial sectors, a review of the supply chains supporting motor and drives in the U.S., and the performance improvement opportunity available from using best available technologies and maintenance and operation practices. The outcomes of the MSMA are documented in three U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment reports, with this report being the first listed: 1. Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base (this report) documents the findings on the installed base of motor systems in the U.S. industrial and commercial sectors. Quantification of energy savings potential is not documented in this report but in Volume 3. 2. Volume 2: Motors and Drives Supply Chain Review reviews the state of supply chains for motors and drives installed in U.S. industrial and commercial facilities, focusing on advanced motor and drive technologies and their constituent materials. 3. Volume 3: Energy Savings Opportunity analyzes the energy performance improvement opportunity for the installed base of U.S. industrial and commercial motor systems. This report has been prepared as a reference for motor system stakeholders. It provides factual information as could be best determined by the assessment results and avoids speculating on any findings.

Pecan Street’s field-metered data offer an opportunity to track actual appliance usage patterns and energy consumption over multiple years, and can supplement data from the US Energy Information Administration’s Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS). This report is based on dishwasher metering data collected from more than 500 households located in Texas, California, New York, and Colorado from 2012 to 2021. The historical dishwasher usage frequency, the COVID-19 period usage change, and the potential seasonal trend in usage were investigated. Dishwasher cycle features such as cycle duration, quick cycle usage frequency, and average per cycle dishwasher energy consumption were observed and characterized. Due to the sample size, the lack of demographic data, and the limited geographic locations of the participating households, the results are not nationally representative. However, when compared with the usage frequency reported by RECS, the field-obtained average annual cycle counts per household are 164 in 2015 and 197 in 2020 for selected households which are consistent with the RECS annual cycle counts of 181 and 191 respectively in 2015 and 2020 for the same geographic locations. Our findings support the use of RECS data to approximate field dishwasher usage. The field data usage frequency for households with infrequent dishwasher use could supplement the RECS information to better characterize the national usage distribution of different cycle selections.

Water conservation and appliance efficiency standards programs in the United States encounter challenges in assessing their economic impacts due to the limited availability of representative water and wastewater price data. In this report, we review water and sewage price and price trend data from two established sources: the Water and Sewerage Consumer Price Index from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and water and wastewater rate survey data from Raftelis/American Water Works Association (AWWA). By leveraging historical Raftelis/AWWA data, we develop an empirical approach to (1) interpolate the data by establishing regional trends that capture the pace of price increases as transparently and consistently as possible, and (2) extrapolate prices for future years for the purpose of quantifying water cost savings resulting from policy decisions. Additionally, our prediction models offer a means to verify data consistency when new rate survey data from Raftelis/AWWA become available.