- Luo, Yiqi;
- Ahlström, Anders;
- Allison, Steven D;
- Batjes, Niels H;
- Brovkin, Victor;
- Carvalhais, Nuno;
- Chappell, Adrian;
- Ciais, Philippe;
- Davidson, Eric A;
- Finzi, Adien;
- Georgiou, Katerina;
- Guenet, Bertrand;
- Hararuk, Oleksandra;
- Harden, Jennifer W;
- He, Yujie;
- Hopkins, Francesca;
- Jiang, Lifen;
- Koven, Charlie;
- Jackson, Robert B;
- Jones, Chris D;
- Lara, Mark J;
- Liang, Junyi;
- McGuire, A David;
- Parton, William;
- Peng, Changhui;
- Randerson, James T;
- Salazar, Alejandro;
- Sierra, Carlos A;
- Smith, Matthew J;
- Tian, Hanqin;
- Todd‐Brown, Katherine EO;
- Torn, Margaret;
- van Groenigen, Kees Jan;
- Wang, Ying Ping;
- West, Tristram O;
- Wei, Yaxing;
- Wieder, William R;
- Xia, Jianyang;
- Xu, Xia;
- Xu, Xiaofeng;
- Zhou, Tao
Soil carbon (C) is a critical component of Earth system models (ESMs), and its diverse representations are a major source of the large spread across models in the terrestrial C sink from the third to fifth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Improving soil C projections is of a high priority for Earth system modeling in the future IPCC and other assessments. To achieve this goal, we suggest that (1) model structures should reflect real-world processes, (2) parameters should be calibrated to match model outputs with observations, and (3) external forcing variables should accurately prescribe the environmental conditions that soils experience. First, most soil C cycle models simulate C input from litter production and C release through decomposition. The latter process has traditionally been represented by first-order decay functions, regulated primarily by temperature, moisture, litter quality, and soil texture. While this formulation well captures macroscopic soil organic C (SOC) dynamics, better understanding is needed of their underlying mechanisms as related to microbial processes, depth-dependent environmental controls, and other processes that strongly affect soil C dynamics. Second, incomplete use of observations in model parameterization is a major cause of bias in soil C projections from ESMs. Optimal parameter calibration with both pool- and flux-based data sets through data assimilation is among the highest priorities for near-term research to reduce biases among ESMs. Third, external variables are represented inconsistently among ESMs, leading to differences in modeled soil C dynamics. We recommend the implementation of traceability analyses to identify how external variables and model parameterizations influence SOC dynamics in different ESMs. Overall, projections of the terrestrial C sink can be substantially improved when reliable data sets are available to select the most representative model structure, constrain parameters, and prescribe forcing fields.