Maturation schedules shape the age structure of a population and influence productivity and exposure to fishing. Fish cultivated and raised in artificial environments such as hatcheries may mature at different ages compared to their natural-origin counterparts. We evaluated whether endangered Sacramento River winter-run Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha produced in a conservation hatchery had different maturation schedules compared to naturalorigin fish, and how any differences affected their exposure to, and impact from, the ocean salmon fishery. Using coded-wire tags collected from hatchery fish in the ocean and in-river fisheries and on the spawning grounds, and scales collected from natural-origin spawner carcasses, we reconstructed the life history of hatchery and natural-origin cohorts from 2002-2015 brood years. Hatchery fish had similar age-2 maturation rates but higher age-3 maturation rates compared to natural-origin fish, resulting in fewer age-4 individuals and an overall more truncated age structure. Because natural-origin winter-run Chinook salmon were more likely to remain at sea until age 4, they were exposed to fishing for an additional year and experienced greater reduction in escapement. Compared to natural-origin males, hatchery-origin males were much less likely to return at an older age, possibly because sexual selection that is occurring on the spawning grounds is not occurring to the same extent in the hatchery. Identifying how reproductive maturation differs across sources, sex, and life histories is critical to understanding how fisheries can disproportionately impact subsets of a population and affect its long-term population dynamics and sustainability.

The match-mismatch hypothesis suggests there is an optimal window for organisms to undergo key life cycle events. Here, we test the importance of match-mismatch dynamics in the timing of salmon arrival to the ocean, relative to ecosystem phenology, for the ocean survival rates of hatchery-origin fall run Chinook salmon originating from California's Central Valley. Specifically, we considered tag recovery data for releases of coded-wire tagged fish released into the San Francisco Estuary during the years 1978 to 2010. We determined a time lag for each release relative to the local spring transition date (initiation of net upwelling). Additionally, we obtained information on fish condition and size at release, the number of fish released corresponding to distinct tag codes, and yearly stock-specific harvest rate estimates. We used generalized linear models, generalized additive models, and cross-validation to identify the best-supported models for the effects of release timing and other covariates on age-3 ocean fishery recovery rates, a proxy of ocean survival rates. Release time is a useful predictor of within-year variation in survival rates, above and beyond the effects of size at release, presence of disease, and the use of net pens, and the lag relative to spring transition was a slightly better predictor than year-day. The optimal release timing appeared to occur around the end of May, and the optimal time lag appeared to be approximately 70 to 115 d after the spring transition date. However, timing is only one of many factors that affected within- and among-year variation in survival.

Declines in animal body sizes are widely reported and likely impact ecological interactions and ecosystem services. For harvested species subject to multiple stressors, limited understanding of the causes and consequences of size declines impedes prediction, prevention, and mitigation. We highlight widespread declines in Pacific salmon size based on 60 years of measurements from 12.5 million fish across Alaska, the last largely pristine North American salmon-producing region. Declines in salmon size, primarily resulting from shifting age structure, are associated with climate and competition at sea. Compared to salmon maturing before 1990, the reduced size of adult salmon after 2010 has potentially resulted in substantial losses to ecosystems and people; for Chinook salmon we estimated average per-fish reductions in egg production (-16%), nutrient transport (-28%), fisheries value (-21%), and meals for rural people (-26%). Downsizing of organisms is a global concern, and current trends may pose substantial risks for nature and people.