This paper investigates the potential for public policies to achieve electricity efficiency improvements in U.S. residences. This estimate of achievable potential builds upon a database of energy-efficient technologies developed for a previous study estimating the technical potential for electricity savings. The savings potential and cost for each efficiency measure in the database is modified to reflect the expected results of policies implemented between 1990 and 2010. Factors included in these modifications are: the market penetration of efficiency measures, the costs of administering policies, and adjustments to the technical potential measures to reflect the actual energy savings and cost experienced in the past. When all adjustment factors are considered, this study estimates that policies can achieve approximately 45 percent of the technical potential savings during the period from 1990 to 2010. Thus, policies can potentially avoid 18 percent of the annual frozen-efficiency baseline electricity consumption forecast for the year 2010. This study also investigates the uncertainty in best estimate of achievable potential by estimating two alternative scenarios -- a "higher penetration, lower cost" scenario and a "lower penetration, higher cost" scenario. These are intended to encompass a range of possibilities for future energy-efficiency policies. The scenarios suggest that policies can achieve between 36 percent and 58 percent of the technical potential electricity savings during the 1990 to 2010 period.

In 1993 the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) introduced ENERGY STAR (registered trademark), a voluntary labeling program designed to identify and promote energy-efficient products. Since then EPA, now in partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), has introduced programs for more than twenty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating and cooling equipment, new homes, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics, and major appliances. We present potential energy, dollar and carbon savings forecasts for these programs for the period 1998 to 2010. Our target market penetration case represents our best estimate of future ENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goals for each of the products. We also provide results under the assumption of 100 market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasers buy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiency products throughout the analysis period. Finally, we assess the sensitivity of our target penetration case forecasts to greater or lesser marketing success by EPA and DOE, lower-than-expected future energy prices, and higher or lower rates of carbon emission by electricity generators. The potential savings of ENERGY STAR are substantial. If all purchasers chose Energy Star-compliant products instead of standard efficiency products over the next 15 years, they would save more than 100 billion on their energy bills during those 15 years. (Bill savings are in 1995 dollars, discounted at a 4 real discount rate.)

Peak power demand issues have come to the fore recently because of the California electricity crisis. Uncertainties surrounding the reliability of electric power systems in restructured markets as well as security worries are the latest reasons for such concerns, but the issues surrounding peak demand are as old as the electric utility system itself. The long lead times associated with building new capacity, the lack of price response in the face of time-varying costs, the large difference between peak demand and average demand, and the necessity for real-time delivery of electricity all make the connection between system peak demand and system reliability an important driver of public policy in the electric utility sector. This exploratory option paper was written at the request of Jerry Dion at the U.S.Department of Energy (DOE). It is one of several white papers commissioned in 2002 exploring key issues of relevance to DOE. This paper explores policy-relevant issues surrounding peak demand, to help guide DOE's research efforts in this area. The findings of this paper are as follows. In the short run, DOE funding of deployment activities on peak demand can help society achieve a more economically efficient balance between investments in supply and demand-side technologies. DOE policies can promote implementation of key technologies to ameliorate peak demand, through government purchasing, technology demonstrations, and improvements in test procedures, efficiency standards, and labeling programs. In the long run, R&D is probably the most important single leverage point for DOE to influence the peak demand issue. Technologies for time-varying price response hold great potential for radically altering the way people use electricity in buildings, but are decades away from widespread use, so DOE R&D and expertise can make a real difference here.

ENERGY STAR(R) is a voluntary labeling program designed to identify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices. Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), ENERGY STAR labels exist for more than thirty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating and cooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics, and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subset of ENERGY STAR program activities, focused primarily on labeled products. We present estimates of the energy, dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2002, what we expect in 2003, and provide savings forecasts for two market penetration scenarios for the period 2003 to 2020. The target market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of future ENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goals for each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumption of 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasers buy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiency products throughout the analysis period.

ENERGY STAR(R) is a voluntary labeling program designed to identify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices. Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), ENERGY STAR labels exist for more than thirty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating and cooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics, and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subset of ENERGY STAR labeled products. We present estimates of the energy, dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2003, what we expect in 2004, and provide savings forecasts for two market penetration scenarios for the periods 2004 to 2010 and 2004 to 2020. The target market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of future ENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goals for each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumption of 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasers buy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiency products throughout the analysis period.