UC San Diego

Abstract: The 1 January 2024, moment magnitude 7.5 Noto Peninsula earthquake ruptured in complex ways, challenging analysis of its tsunami generation. We present tsunami models informed by a 6‐subevent centroid moment tensor (CMT) model obtained through Bayesian inversion of teleseismic and strong motion data. We identify two distinct bilateral rupture episodes. Initial, onshore rupture toward the southwest is followed by delayed re‐nucleation at the hypocenter, likely aided by fault weakening, causing significant seafloor uplift to the northeast. We construct a complex multi‐fault uplift model, validated against geodetic observations, that aligns with known fault system geometries and is critical in modeling the observed tsunami. The simulations can explain tsunami wave amplitude, timing, and polarity of the leading wave, which are crucial for tsunami early warning. Upon comparison with alternative source models and analysis of 2000 multi‐CMT ensemble solutions, we highlight the importance of incorporating complex source effects for realistic tsunami simulations.