UC Davis

Global human population transitioned from a rural to urban majority in 2008. The struggle to accommodate urban growth while simultaneously conserving natural resources will be felt around the globe. The capacity to project urban growth scenarios that reflect various public policies so that their relative impacts can be evaluated on natural resources is broadly needed. We developed a framework for such analyses by using a spatially explicit urban growth model to project seven different growth scenarios that represent a range of public policies. The outputs were analyzed in terms of their impacts on 14 types of conservation priority lands. The scenarios covered policies that ranged from "Business as Usual," to "Farmland Soils Protection," to "Compact Growth." At state-government convened meetings, regional scientists identified and assembled the 14 key conservation priority data layers reflecting high value open space and conservation opportunities. We assessed the impact of each projected urban growth output with each conservation priority layer. The scenario with the least overall ecological impact was the Compact Growth Scenario; the Great Cities Scenario was also relatively low. Because of its efficiency and ease of use, the general availability of needed data, and its suitability for use by local governments, the method presented here could be incorporated for other regions of the world where working landscapes are negatively affected by urban growth. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.