Introduction

This study examined the predictive relationships between biomarkers of nicotine exposure and 16-item self-reported level of tobacco dependence (TD) and subsequent tobacco use outcomes.

Aims and methods

The Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study surveyed adult current established tobacco users who provided urine biospecimens at Wave 1 (September 2013-December 2014) and completed the Wave 2 (October 2014-October 2015) interview (n = 6872). Mutually exclusive user groups at Wave 1 included: Cigarette Only, E-cigarette Only, Cigar Only, Hookah Only, Smokeless Tobacco Only, Cigarette Plus E-cigarette, multiple tobacco product users who smoked cigarettes, and multiple tobacco product users who did not smoke cigarettes. Total Nicotine Equivalents (TNE-2) and TD were measured at Wave 1. Approximate one-year outcomes included frequency/quantity used, quitting, and adding/switching to different tobacco products.

Results

For Cigarette Only smokers and multiple tobacco product users who smoked cigarettes, higher TD and TNE-2 were associated with: a tendency to smoke more, smoking more frequently over time, decreased likelihood of switching away from cigarettes, and decreased probability of quitting after one year. For other product user groups, Wave 1 TD and/or TNE-2 were less consistently related to changes in quantity and frequency of product use, or for adding or switching products, but higher TNE-2 was more consistently predictive of decreased probability of quitting.

Conclusions

Self-reported TD and nicotine exposure assess common and independent aspects of dependence in relation to tobacco use behaviors for cigarette smokers. For other product user groups, nicotine exposure is a more consistent predictor of quitting than self-reported TD.

Implications

This study suggests that smoking cigarettes leads to the most coherent pattern of associations consistent with a syndrome of TD. Because cigarettes continue to be prevalent and harmful, efforts to decrease their use may be accelerated via conventional means (eg, smoking cessation interventions and treatments), but also perhaps by decreasing their dependence potential. The implications for noncombustible tobacco products are less clear as the stability of tobacco use patterns that include products such as e-cigarettes continue to evolve. TD, nicotine exposure measures, and consumption could be used in studies that attempt to understand and predict product-specific tobacco use behavioral outcomes.

Background

This paper describes the methods and conceptual framework for Wave 1 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study data collection. The National Institutes of Health, through the National Institute on Drug Abuse, is partnering with the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) Center for Tobacco Products to conduct the PATH Study under a contract with Westat.

Methods

The PATH Study is a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of 45 971 adults and youth in the USA, aged 12 years and older. Wave 1 was conducted from 12 September 2013 to 15 December 2014 using Audio Computer-Assisted Self-Interviewing to collect information on tobacco-use patterns, risk perceptions and attitudes towards current and newly emerging tobacco products, tobacco initiation, cessation, relapse behaviours and health outcomes. The PATH Study's design allows for the longitudinal assessment of patterns of use of a spectrum of tobacco products, including initiation, cessation, relapse and transitions between products, as well as factors associated with use patterns. Additionally, the PATH Study collects biospecimens from consenting adults aged 18 years and older and measures biomarkers of exposure and potential harm related to tobacco use.

Conclusions

The cumulative, population-based data generated over time by the PATH Study will contribute to the evidence base to inform FDA's regulatory mission under the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act and efforts to reduce the Nation's burden of tobacco-related death and disease.