Objective

To develop and validate an HIV risk assessment tool to predict HIV acquisition among African women.

Design

Data were analyzed from 3 randomized trials of biomedical HIV prevention interventions among African women (VOICE, HPTN 035, and FEM-PrEP).

Methods

We implemented standard methods for the development of clinical prediction rules to generate a risk-scoring tool to predict HIV acquisition over the course of 1 year. Performance of the score was assessed through internal and external validations.

Results

The final risk score resulting from multivariable modeling included age, married/living with a partner, partner provides financial or material support, partner has other partners, alcohol use, detection of a curable sexually transmitted infection, and herpes simplex virus 2 serostatus. Point values for each factor ranged from 0 to 2, with a maximum possible total score of 11. Scores ≥5 were associated with HIV incidence >5 per 100 person-years and identified 91% of incident HIV infections from among only 64% of women. The area under the curve (AUC) for predictive ability of the score was 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68 to 0.74), indicating good predictive ability. Risk score performance was generally similar with internal cross-validation (AUC = 0.69; 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.73) and external validation in HPTN 035 (AUC = 0.70; 95% CI: 0.65 to 0.75) and FEM-PrEP (AUC = 0.58; 95% CI: 0.51 to 0.65).

Conclusions

A discrete set of characteristics that can be easily assessed in clinical and research settings was predictive of HIV acquisition over 1 year. The use of a validated risk score could improve efficiency of recruitment into HIV prevention research and inform scale-up of HIV prevention strategies in women at highest risk.

Background

Young women aged 15-24 years are disproportionately affected by the HIV epidemic. Two phase III trials of a vaginal ring containing 25-mg dapivirine demonstrated HIV-1 risk reduction in adult women older than 21 years but not in those aged 18-21 years. Lack of protection was correlated with low adherence.

Methods

In this phase-IIa, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, US, multicenter trial of the dapivirine ring in sexually active females, aged 15-17 years, participants were randomized 3:1 to a dapivirine or placebo ring to be inserted monthly for 6 months (NCT02028338). Primary safety end points included grade 2 product related adverse events and any grade 3 and higher adverse events. Adherence to ring use was assessed by plasma dapivirine concentrations, residual levels in used rings, and self-report. A plasma dapivirine concentration of >95 pg/mL was used to define short-term adherence; a residual ring level of <23.5 mg was used to define long-term adherence. Acceptability was assessed through computer-assisted self-interviews.

Results

Ninety-six participants were enrolled across 6 US sites. The median age was 16.0 years. There were no differences in safety outcomes between treatment arms. Adherence to the dapivirine ring was demonstrated by both plasma measurements (87%) and residual drug levels in rings (95%). Forty-two percent (95% confidence interval: 32 to 52) of participants reported that they never removed the ring. Participants noted no discomfort due to the ring at 87% of visits and "liking" the ring at 93% of visits.

Conclusion

The dapivirine vaginal ring, a promising topical microbicide, was well tolerated and acceptable in young US adolescents.