Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) causes tuberculosis (TB) and remains one of the leading causes of mortality due to an infectious pathogen. Host immune responses have been implicated in driving the progression from infection to severe lung disease. We analyzed longitudinal RNA sequencing (RNAseq) data from the whole blood of 74 TB progressors whose samples were grouped into four six-month intervals preceding diagnosis (the GC6-74 study). We additionally analyzed RNAseq data from an independent cohort of 90 TB patients with positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) scan results which were used to categorize them into groups with high and low levels of lung damage (the Catalysis TB Biomarker study). These groups were compared to non-TB controls to obtain a complete whole blood transcriptional profile for individuals spanning from early stages of M.tb infection to TB diagnosis. The results revealed a steady increase in the number of genes that were differentially expressed in progressors at time points closer to diagnosis with 278 genes at 13-18 months, 742 at 7-12 months and 5,131 detected 1-6 months before diagnosis and 9,205 detected in TB patients. A total of 2,144 differentially expressed genes were detected when comparing TB patients with high and low levels of lung damage. There was a large overlap in the genes upregulated in progressors 1-6 months before diagnosis (86%) with those in TB patients. A comprehensive pathway analysis revealed a potent activation of neutrophil and platelet mediated defenses including neutrophil and platelet degranulation, and NET formation at both time points. These pathways were also enriched in TB patients with high levels of lung damage compared to those with low. These findings suggest that neutrophils and platelets play a critical role in TB pathogenesis, and provide details of the timing of specific effector mechanisms that may contribute to TB lung pathology.

Improved tuberculosis diagnostics and tools for monitoring treatment response are urgently needed. We developed a robust and simple, PCR-based host-blood transcriptomic signature, RISK6, for multiple applications: identifying individuals at risk of incident disease, as a screening test for subclinical or clinical tuberculosis, and for monitoring tuberculosis treatment. RISK6 utility was validated by blind prediction using quantitative real-time (qRT) PCR in seven independent cohorts. Prognostic performance significantly exceeded that of previous signatures discovered in the same cohort. Performance for diagnosing subclinical and clinical disease in HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected persons, assessed by area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, exceeded 85%. As a screening test for tuberculosis, the sensitivity at 90% specificity met or approached the benchmarks set out in World Health Organization target product profiles for non-sputum-based tests. RISK6 scores correlated with lung immunopathology activity, measured by positron emission tomography, and tracked treatment response, demonstrating utility as treatment response biomarker, while predicting treatment failure prior to treatment initiation. Performance of the test in capillary blood samples collected by finger-prick was noninferior to venous blood collected in PAXgene tubes. These results support incorporation of RISK6 into rapid, capillary blood-based point-of-care PCR devices for prospective assessment in field studies.